Emergency powers let Trump curb diesel exports over his own party's objections

A binding ban would take two steps. "This would be a very straightforward thing to do under IEEPA," said Peter Harrell of Georgetown Law, a former State Department official ^[10]. Trump would declare oil shortages a national emergency and sign an executive order restricting diesel exports, Harrell said, and the order could let the Energy Department grant exemptions ^[11]. The exemptions would set how many barrels the ban actually keeps at home. Oil-state Republicans are the harshest critics. Sen. John Cornyn of Texas called the idea "a gimmick" that "won't work" ^[4].

There are three versions to price. In the first, nothing is signed and the remarks are the whole event. Even then, the European Union echoed the oil industry's warnings as its own diesel costs climbed after Trump spoke ^[6]. In the second, the limits are the nonbinding kind Energy Secretary Chris Wright suggested in Pennsylvania on Thursday ^[7]. Skanda Amarnath, a former Federal Reserve economist who runs Employ America, counts the soft version as a ban too. "The diesel export ban, even if in a strong-armed 'voluntary' form, is a desperate idea that promotes inefficiency and ultimately higher prices," he said ^[8]. The third is a binding order under the emergency statute, with the Energy Department's carve-outs deciding its reach ^[11].

On this record, I think the relief case is the weaker one. The only price move Semafor reports went against it, in Europe, on words alone ^[6]. US oil executives have fought a ban and warn it would lift prices worldwide ^[5], and Semafor reports it would also risk pricier gasoline at home ^[21]. Support comes mainly from Republican candidates in tight races this fall who want more cost-cutting ideas to campaign on ^[24]. Ashley Hinson in Iowa and Mike Rogers in Michigan, both running for the Senate, say a ban is needed to support their states' struggling farm producers ^[13]. If an order were signed and the US average fell back under $6.50 a gallon while European prices took the rise, they would be right ^[1]. The ban would then be relief at home, paid for abroad. Semafor's report does not include export volumes or an estimate of how far a ban would move US prices.

Republicans who oppose the ban have offered other options. GOP lawmakers have proposed cutting gas taxes or tapping oil reserves ^[14], and Sen. Susan Collins of Maine wants heating oil released from a federal reserve before winter ^[16]. "The better policy would be for states like California to lift the restrictions that they're imposing on the exploitation and the refining of diesel," Sen. Bill Hagerty of Tennessee said ^[15]. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries pointed to the Iran war, now past seven months ^[20]. "Go tell Donald Trump to end that war in Iran that no one in America asked for in the first place," he said ^[19]. A White House official told Semafor the president "is evaluating all the options on the table" ^[18]. Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina called the ban "just another example where, even in the White House, I think there's disagreements about the pros and cons" ^[17].