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Anthropic and OpenAI queue $1.98 trillion of valuation behind SpaceX's $370 million rotation
Vanda Research measured about $370 million of retail money rotating into SpaceX's June debut and out of the Magnificent 7. That flow is the whole record standing behind two much larger listings now being prepared.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- Vanda Research counts roughly $370 million of flow into SpaceX stock around its mid-June IPO, with the bulk of that money rotating out of the Magnificent 7 mega-cap group.
- Over the same period, Vanda says investors were net sellers of Apple and Tesla and bought only $88 million of Nvidia.
- Vanda coined the FAB 10, or Frontier AI & Big Tech 10, which takes the Magnificent 7 and adds SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI to it.
- Anthropic's potential listing is pencilled in for October at a $1.13 trillion valuation, according to the Seeking Alpha account.
- Morgan Stanley has Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Oracle spending over $800 billion on AI data centres this year and the hyperscalers adding more than $1.2 trillion next year.
Compiled by The InvestorSomething wrong?How this is made
Why it matters
- constraint At about half a percent of SpaceX's own debut capitalisation, the measured retail rotation is nowhere near large enough to price a $1.13 trillion Anthropic book; institutional bids set those terms.
- exposure If 2027 data centre spending outruns hyperscaler free cash flow, holders of the incumbent names own a credit story, and bond investors get a say in the multiple.
- decision Buyers questioning the next two books hands Anthropic's underwriters a timing choice: price against a soft SpaceX comparable in October, or wait for a better one.
- precedent If a hyperscaler buys one of the chatbot firms first, the basket thesis loses a listing before retail ever gets to vote on it.
Set the $370 million next to what it is supposed to have moved. SpaceX opened at $75 billion [4], so the retail flow Vanda Research measured comes to about half a percent of the company's debut capitalisation [1]. Against the more than $800 billion the biggest technology spenders are putting into AI data centres this year, it is roughly five hundredths of one percent [3]. The narrow comparison is the one that flatters the rotation case: $370 million into SpaceX against $88 million into Nvidia over the same stretch, a bit over four to one [2][3][2].
Vanda Research analyst Viraj Patel wrote that the debut triggered "the longest streak of retail net selling in the Magnificent 7 since March 2020" [5]. The same note has the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF down more than 4.73% in the month before the IPO [6]. Retail was selling the incumbents before the new name was there to buy.
Anthropic's tentative October listing at $1.13 trillion and OpenAI's, expected later this year or in early 2027, at $847.96 billion, come to about $1.98 trillion of valuation reaching the market inside roughly six months [8][9][4]. The article does not give offering sizes for either. Jane Edmondson, head of indexing design at TMX VettaFi, said "The SpaceX IPO has not performed as expected. Anthropic and OpenAI are not a slam dunk" [10]. Behind those two, the pipeline runs to DeepSeek in early 2027, possibly followed by Cohere and Perplexity [22].
Morgan Stanley has the hyperscalers going from more than $800 billion this year to more than $1.2 trillion next year, a 50% increase [12][5], with 2027 spending expected to outpace their free cash flow [13]. "Data centers are increasingly running on borrowed money," wrote New York Times columnist Jeff Sommer [14]. Edmondson said "Is it an overbuild? And now many of these companies are going to the credit markets" [16].
I think $370 million is too small a number to position a portfolio on, and the variable that sets both legs of the basket is whether bond investors fund $1.2 trillion at current yields. Daniel Alpert, executive chairman at Westwood Capital, said "All of these companies are so overvalued right now that what's really going to drive the market is performance, more than monetary policy or any wars" [17]. What would show this reading wrong is Anthropic's October book clearing near $1.13 trillion and holding there, which would say retail depth is greater than one June window showed. Alpert also expects a hyperscaler to bid for Anthropic, OpenAI or Perplexity [18]. A takeover takes a name out of the listing queue before any flow question is settled. "They don't need to build out Gemini. They can just buy one of the big three chatbot companies," Alpert said of Google [19].
What to watch
- Whether Anthropic's October book prices at or near the $1.13 trillion figure, and where the stock sits a month after listing.
- Whether the hyperscalers trim their $1.2 trillion 2027 plans or fund the gap in the bond market at current yields.
- A hyperscaler bid for one of Anthropic, OpenAI or Perplexity before it reaches the public market.