Hana's 37.5% Lift on SK Inc. Prices Other People's Decisions

Hana Securities raised its target price on SK Inc. to 770,000 won from 560,000 won, a 37.5% increase, citing earnings improvements at major affiliates and the potential for rising stake values ^[1]. What is notable is how little of that uplift, 210,000 won a share ^[1], depends on anything the holding company decides for itself.

Analysts Choi Jung-wook and Jung So-young kept a buy rating and attributed the revision to higher stake values from share-price gains at major affiliates, plus room for further gains as SK hynix and SK Innovation improve earnings ^[2]. The reported quarter was extreme: consolidated revenue up 39.9% year-on-year to 42.1 trillion won ^[3], implying about 30.1 trillion won a year earlier ^[5], and operating profit up 2,205% to 4.8 trillion won ^[4], off a base of roughly 208 billion won ^[6]. SK Innovation swung to a 3.5 trillion won operating profit from a loss ^[6]. SK Telecom's operating profit rose 67.6% to 600 billion won, helped by a base effect from last year's cyberattack costs and AI data centre growth ^[7]. The report puts SK Square's second-quarter operating profit at 19.2 trillion won on record earnings at SK hynix, up 1,274% ^[5]; as printed, that figure exceeds SK Inc.'s own consolidated operating profit ^[9], so read the line as a memory-cycle signal rather than a number to model from.

Not everything cooperated. Unlisted SK Ecoplant grew revenue to 5.2 trillion won but produced only 534 billion won of operating profit, missing expectations on more than 200 billion won of losses in its solutions division tied to unsold homes at domestic projects ^[8].

The second leg of the argument is the divorce overhang. SK has agreed to sell 47.32 million SK Siltron shares to Doosan for 2.3 trillion won ^[9], about 48,600 won a share ^[3], with an earn-out paying SK 28.2% of surplus EBITDA above annual benchmarks from 2027 to 2034, derived by applying its 70.6% stake to 40% of the excess ^[10]. That implies roughly 3.26 trillion won for the whole company ^[2]. On that basis Hana values Chairman Chey Tae-won's personal 29.4% holding at about 950 billion won, against the 944 billion won settlement set in the appellate retrial ^[11] - roughly 101% coverage ^[4]. In theory, the analysts wrote, a substantial part of the settlement could be raised without disposing of SK shares, though the matter returns to the Supreme Court and uncertainty remains until a final ruling ^[12].

The third leg is a tax clause. SK plans to cancel 14.69 million treasury shares, excluding 3.29 million reserved for employee compensation, equal to 20.1% of shares outstanding ^[14], implying a share count near 73 million ^[7]. That was expected to trigger about 400 billion won of corporate tax, now more likely to be resolved ^[13] because this year's tax reform bill allows deferred taxation where shares contributed in kind under exemption are converted to treasury stock and cancelled in a merger ^[15]. Hana notes the deferral on the old SK Energy in-kind contribution continues as long as SK Innovation is not sold ^[16].

Watch three dates rather than SK's own disclosures: the Supreme Court ruling, which decides whether the overhang truly clears ^[12]; the effective date of the tax reform bill, which Hana says could push January's cancellation back ^[17]; and the closing of the Doosan sale, since the settlement-coverage arithmetic assumes 2.3 trillion won arrives ^[9].