UK crypto firms that file by February 2027 can keep operating while the FCA decides

Between the filing deadline and the start date there are 239 days ^[1]. The FCA says it expects to decide applications submitted during the window before the regime comes into force ^[6]. The rules include a fallback in case it does not. An existing firm that applied in time can keep providing cryptoasset services, including taking on new business, if no decision has arrived by 25 October 2027 ^[7].

That makes the October date a hard stop for two groups: firms that never filed, and firms the FCA turns down ^[5]. For every other existing firm, the date that settles whether it stays in the UK market is 28 February 2027 ^[2].

The FCA may clear its queue before October and never need the fallback ^[6]. If the queue backs up instead, some existing firms will go on selling to new UK customers on applications still under review ^[7]. The third outcome is refusal, which leaves customers with a provider that can no longer offer regulated cryptoasset services in the UK ^[5].

I think the first two outcomes differ mainly in timing. The third tests whether the FCA's statement that authorisation is "not automatic" ^[4] means much. The counter-case is that refusals stay rare because weak firms never file. Firms can ask for a pre-application support meeting before applying ^[8]. A firm that concludes from that meeting that it falls short has a cheaper option than a formal refusal: it can leave. If that happens, the UK market shrinks through exits before the FCA refuses anyone, and a low refusal count would understate how many firms the standards pushed out.

For a firm, the spending decision comes before February. It either pays to prove it meets the four standards the FCA assesses (consumer protection, safeguarding of customer assets, market integrity and financial resilience) ^[4], or it plans to stop serving UK customers. Filing does not require it to pause new business while it waits ^[7]. The final rules and guidance have been public since June 2026 ^[10], about eight months before the deadline ^[2].

Dominic Cashman, the FCA's director of authorisation, said: "The UK's new crypto regime will give consumers greater protections and firms a clear framework to operate in. Firms can now apply for authorisation and start preparing for regulation." ^[9]

The FCA did not say how many firms it expects to apply, or how many it expects to refuse. The view that February decides access would be wrong if the FCA refuses a large share of existing applicants. In that case the date that removes firms from the market is the date of the FCA's decision, whenever it comes ^[5].