The whole global tokenized equity market implied by those two figures is about $1.85bn [14], if the July 29 market cap and the July share reading are close enough in date to divide [2][4]. Ondo's remaining 45% is then roughly $833m [15][5], and that number is what decides whether the incumbent lost anything at all: at 75% before and 45% now, Ondo's dollars are unchanged if the market stood near $1.11bn in May [23] and grew about 1.67 times since [22], and higher if the market was smaller than that. Percentages are all the record gives us for Ondo, so both readings survive.
The mix of volume is the part worth staring at. May's record $5.3bn of on-chain spot trading, up 44% from about $3.68bn the month before [6][20], sat underneath roughly $34bn of perpetual futures on tokenized stocks at centralized exchanges over the same period [7], a ratio near 6.4 to one [19]. A perp hands you the price without the ownership record, and when the leveraged claim trades six times the wrapper, the demand being served is exposure to US tickers rather than settlement of them.
Changpeng Zhao's post says IPOs will inevitably move on-chain [1], and Cryptopolitan, which supplies the share numbers, calls bStocks the fastest-growing tokenized equity product in the world [13]. What it grew into is 56 tokens, with SNDKB, SPCXB, MUB, CRCLB and SOXLB carrying the largest allocations [3], accreting about $10.4m of market cap a day across the 48 days from launch to July 29 [21], and no on-chain primary raise anywhere in the account. The prediction and the product are doing different jobs. Distribution of existing tickers is the half of this market that does not require an issuer to sign anything, and it is the half Binance built.
LSEG is the entrant with the underlying in hand, or rather the more interesting version of that: a group evaluating ledger-based settlement and trading for traditional equities with Payward, Kraken's parent [11], having said in February that it was already building a blockchain system [12]. Binance and Ondo are wrapping shares that somebody else settles.
My read is that the contested product today is leveraged exposure sold to crypto users, and the 6.4 to one ratio is the evidence [19]. The counter-thesis, which I take seriously, is Solana passing $10bn of share token transfer volume in June [8], because transfer rather than trading is what builds first if custody and movement are the real demand. Spot volume outrunning perps for two consecutive quarters would move me off the first reading; another quarter at six times spot would leave it exactly where it is.
