Fifty-eight percent of US card switchers promoted a card they already held

Divide 78 million by 0.36 and the implied universe behind the figure is about 217 million US credit cardholders ^[1][13]. Within the switching group, 52 million of the 78 million did it more than once in the same two years, or roughly two-thirds ^[2][14]. These are people who reassign primary status as a habit.

The accounting is what makes this hard to see from the inside. PYMNTS Intelligence notes that a consumer holding several open cards can move purchases without filling out an application or closing anything, and that the interchange and potentially the revolving balance go with the purchases ^[10]. Attrition reports count closures, and this switch leaves the account open. PYMNTS calls declining card use an important signal in its own right ^[11].

The window for doing something about it is weeks. Seventeen percent of switchers decided in under a week, 29% took one to two weeks and 25% took three to four, which is the whole of the 71% who chose inside a month, leaving 29% who took longer ^[3][15]. Consideration sets were two cards or fewer for 78% of them, with 38% looking only at the card they picked ^[4]. Forty-six percent had no contact with the previous issuer before switching, and 17% said the issuer made the first move ^[7].

Then there is the mismatch on what gets offered. Of the 335 switchers who received a retention attempt, 32% were offered a fee waiver or reduction and 31% a statement credit or cash back ^[8]. Asked what would have kept them, 25% named a meaningful loyalty or retention bonus, 24% a higher credit limit and 23% a matched or improved rewards rate ^[9]. A fee waiver is a once-a-year giveback out of the marketing line. A limit increase is an underwriting decision that consumes capital, and a rewards match resets the economics of every future purchase on the account. The reasons switchers gave for picking the rival point the same way: 38% cited a better ongoing rewards rate, 36% a higher available credit limit ^[5].

PYMNTS says the account-opening battle gets much of the attention ^[12], and on the survey's own base the card that won was already open for 58% of switchers, about 45 million adults ^[6][16]. An issuer sitting in second position needs no application approved to take that spend ^[10].

The item reports percentages of switchers plus the one subsample of 335, and it does not give dollar purchase volumes ^[17], so a change of primary designation could carry most of a household's spend or a slice of it. And the designation itself is whatever respondents call primary. In my view the behavioural finding is solid and the revenue number is not yet available: decision speed and two-card consideration sets are hard to argue with, and nobody has priced them.