Kiwoom and NH set POSCO Future M targets 61% apart on the same LFP conversion

Kiwoom's 290,000 won target sits about 61% above NH Investment & Securities' 180,000 ^[18]. Both came out on the 16th off the same event: converted LFP lines starting up sequentially in the fourth quarter, in place of existing high-nickel capacity ^[2][4]. NH's raised number is roughly 4.9% below the 189,300 won at which the shares previously closed ^[19]. A converted line is capacity without new money, and the high-nickel tonnage it replaces goes away ^[4].

NH's reason for the hold is the multiple: 162 times projected 2028 earnings, against a sector average of about 40, so around four times the group ^[10][22]. The 2028 date is where the growth case is stacked. LFP cathode capacity goes to 55,000 tons in 2028 from 27,000 in 2027, an added 28,000 tons and roughly a doubling ^[9][20]. Hard carbon anode mass production starts in 2028, after development completes in the third quarter of 2027 ^[6]. The first phase of artificial graphite in Vietnam is targeted for 2028 as well ^[7].

The current quarter runs the other way. NH expects third-quarter operating profit of 16.8 billion won against a market consensus of 26.8 billion, some 10 billion short and about 37% below ^[11][21]. The causes are a sharp appreciation of the won and sluggish shipments of low-cost cathode materials for IT applications. At L&F, the same brokerage expects a swing to an operating loss of 11.6 billion won, and said the shortfall is a temporary result of the stronger won and should be treated as a buying opportunity ^[13].

At L&F the driver was cathode demand. NH's 23% raise there, to 160,000 won from 130,000, came from a higher sales forecast for nickel-cobalt-manganese cathodes ^[12]. The company secured direct shipments for 4680 cylindrical cells and won new projects in North America. NH raised despite concerns that Tesla is diversifying its cathode supply chain.

Sodium-ion is cheap to attempt: the cells can be made on existing lithium-ion lines without extensive retooling, and Korean manufacturers are expected to complete development and begin mass production between 2027 and 2028 ^[16]. The demand named is energy storage, including uninterruptible power supplies for data centers, plus commercial vehicles and small passenger cars ^[15]. CATL is already at gigawatt-hour-scale production, with passenger EVs on the technology and a string of energy storage orders in Europe ^[14]. "As with LFP in the past, SIB is taking hold as a new technology standard led by China, while the need for supply chains outside China is growing," said Kwon Jun-soo, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities ^[17].

Of the two calls, NH's is the one with a dated test attached: customer approval for C&P New Materials, the LFP joint venture with a global partner, within the year, then full-scale production ^[8]. Approval on time makes the 2028 tonnage credible and lets earnings bring the 162 times multiple down. Approval slipping puts the buyer at 189,300 won two years early on a quarter that earns 16.8 billion ^[3][11].