Invest1 publisher2 min readPublished
Anthropic takes one-cent warrants on 51 million shares of Truth Social's host
The six-year agreement moves Anthropic's workloads into a data centre in Maysville, Georgia owned by the company behind Truth Social. It also leaves Anthropic holding cheap equity in its own compute supplier.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- Bloomberg and Reuters reported Sunday that Anthropic has picked Nasdaq for its listing, the venue that hosted SpaceX's record $86.3 billion debut in June.
- The Information reported Monday that Anthropic signed a six-year, $13.7 billion compute deal with RUM Group, the company formerly known as Rumble.
- Anthropic also received warrants over RUM stock that The Information values at more than $360 million at current prices.
- Anthropic is incorporated in Delaware as a public benefit corporation, a form that lets directors put its stated safety mission ahead of shareholder returns.
- Anthropic turned its first positive adjusted operating profit in the second quarter of 2026, on revenue Bloomberg puts at $11.5 billion or more against $787 million a year earlier.
Compiled by The InvestorSomething wrong?How this is made
Why it matters
- constraint Roughly $2.28 billion a year of compute spend is now promised to a single host for six years, money Anthropic cannot place with anyone else over that term.
- exposure Anthropic arrives at the market carrying an equity interest in its own supplier, and what that position is worth moves with RUM's share price rather than with anything Anthropic does.
- decision Buyers of what could be the largest listing on record have to decide what discount, if any, a board legally free to decline profit maximisation deserves.
- contradiction The two revenue pictures describe different companies: an August run rate above $65 billion, against 2025 accounts showing about $4.5 billion recognised and net losses near $42 billion, roughly nine times revenue.
Anthropic's warrants cover up to about 51 million RUM shares at one cent each, so taking up all of them costs $510,000 [6][1]. Stock reported at more than $360 million for a $510,000 exercise is roughly 700 times the cost, and the implied price of the underlying is about $7 a share [2][5]. Measured against the contract, the warrants come to about 2.6 percent of $13.7 billion, and the commitment itself is roughly $2.28 billion a year [3][4].
Less than seven months ago the administration tried to blacklist Anthropic from federal contracting, according to Tech Times [8]. Anthropic is now both the customer of RUM Group and a warrant holder in it, and Peter Thiel and Vice President JD Vance were early investors in the business [4][6][5].
The growth case is where this listing gets decided. Run rate climbed from roughly $9 billion at the end of 2025 to above $47 billion by May, on the figures circulating with investors [12]. Add the $4.73 billion of first-quarter revenue to the second-quarter number and the first half of 2026 is at least $16.23 billion [18][6]. The $100 billion to $120 billion full-year projections therefore need $83.8 billion to $103.8 billion in the second half, at least 5.2 times the first [15][7].
May's Series H closed at $965 billion post-money, so the $2 trillion figure attached to the October listing is 2.1 times that price four months later [14][10][8]. No public benefit corporation has traded at anything close to that size [10].
I think the political entanglement is the smaller of the two risks here. Committed compute of about $2.28 billion a year is roughly 3.5 percent of the annualised run rate Bloomberg reported for August, and $360 million of warrants against a $2 trillion valuation does not change how the company is run [10][13][6][10]. The governance latitude is harder to price, because a board legally free to subordinate returns has one listed comparable and it came public in 2013 [9][10].
Two ways this could go differently. If the S-1 shows a third quarter continuing the step-up of more than $6 billion that took the first quarter to the second, the compute contract and the warrants are footnotes [18]. If audited recognised revenue lands well below the August run rate, the multiple is the first question and the politics the second, since a run rate is an extrapolation of recent monthly performance [20].
What to watch
- The S-1 expected in late September: Anthropic's first audited revenue and confirmed profitability figures.
- Whether federal contracting posture toward Anthropic shifts again before the October listing.
- Whether the Maysville capacity is dedicated to Anthropic workloads or shared with other RUM customers.