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Korean export bank urges subsidies for buyers of home-grown AI chips
Export-Import Bank of Korea researchers want the government to subsidise buyers of Korean AI chips, citing an $860 billion market by 2030. The plan would pay customers to back FuriosaAI and Rebellions in a market Nvidia held 78.2% of last year.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- The institute expects demand to rise for cheaper, lower-power NPUs as the AI industry's focus moves from training to inference.
- Behind Nvidia last year came Google at 4.7%, AMD at 4.1%, Intel at 3.7% and Huawei at 2.6%.
- Korean chipmakers have the design skills but trail leaders by more than three years in capital, commercialization experience and ecosystem, the institute said.
- FuriosaAI began mass production of its RNGD chip early this year, and Rebellions plans to release its REBEL 100 in the second half.
- The institute named the Middle East as a target market, citing export-control risk, expensive Nvidia GPUs and limits on power and land there.
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Why it matters
- cost Tax breaks or subsidies for users would put part of the cost of adopting less proven chips on Korea's public budget, and that cost grows with each data centre that switches.
- constraint The recommended help targets sales and market experience, so FuriosaAI and Rebellions are left to close the capital gap the institute also measures on their own.
- exposure Part of the Middle East case rests on export-control risk, so any easing of those controls would remove one of the three reasons buyers there are looking for alternatives to Nvidia.
Growth of 38% a year for six years multiplies a market by about 6.9, and $860 billion over $124 billion is that multiple [1][1]. At the 2030 size, one point of market share is worth $8.6 billion [2].
Last year's shares leave little room for newcomers. The four suppliers behind Nvidia held 15.1% between them [3], and Nvidia's 78.2% was more than five times that [3][7]. Every other supplier shared the remaining 6.7% [4]. Applied to the 2030 forecast, that remainder would be about $58 billion [5].
The opening the institute describes depends on inference demand favouring NPUs [2], and it can play out in at least three ways. Nvidia could keep roughly its share of a larger market; 78.2% of $860 billion is about $673 billion [6]. The four next-largest suppliers could take whatever Nvidia gives up [4]. Or Korean chips could win a subsidised home market and some Middle East contracts. I think the evidence supports the third only as a foothold. The institute's figures are a forecast and a one-year snapshot, and neither shows Nvidia's share falling. If that share stays near 78% as inference grows, FuriosaAI and Rebellions are competing for part of the $58 billion remainder with every other supplier outside the top five [5].
The proposal is aimed at the buyer [8]. A customer that takes a tax break to run Korean NPUs produces the deployment record the chipmakers lack [7]. The institute said the purpose of support is to let late entrants gain market experience early [11].
Two of the reasons the institute gives for Middle East demand, the cost of Nvidia GPUs and constraints on power, line up with what it says NPUs offer [9][2]. "There is a need to actively explore opportunities for Korean AI chip companies to enter the Middle East market," the institute said [10].
What to watch
- Whether Rebellions releases REBEL 100 in the second half as planned, giving subsidised buyers a second Korean NPU to choose from.
- Whether the Korean government adopts tax breaks or subsidies for users of domestic AI chips, and how large they are.
- Any Middle East order for FuriosaAI's RNGD or Rebellions' REBEL 100.