Waymo's cheap-to-build robotaxi goes general in three cities: 300 deployed, thousands inbound

Waymo has opened its next-generation Ojai robotaxi to all riders in Los Angeles, Phoenix and San Francisco, ending the limited-pickup phase it began in those same three cities earlier this year ^[1][2]. The interesting part is not the rider experience but the balance sheet: this is the first at-scale test of the argument that autonomy reaches workable unit economics through cheaper hardware rather than more Jaguars ^[3].

For years the fleet has been the modified, all-electric Jaguar I-Pace, now operating in 11 U.S. cities ^[4]. Waymo has treated that vehicle as a stopgap on the way to mass scale and eventual profitability ^[5]. The Ojai is the vehicle that is supposed to close the gap. Strip off the sensors and it is a minivan built by Zeekr, a brand owned by China's Geely Holding Group, on Zeekr's SEA-M platform, which the automaker designed for vehicles like robotaxis and delivery vans ^[6][7]. Waymo partnered with Zeekr in 2021 and spent years testing prototype and production-intent versions ^[8]. The stated design goals were cheap to build and maintain, and durable enough for near-constant use ^[9]. On top sits Waymo's sixth-generation driving system, which matters commercially because it is modular and meant to work across multiple vehicle types ^[10]. There is also a redesigned interface and Gemini as an in-car assistant, which is the least consequential thing in the announcement ^[11].

The cost story has a hole in it. Vehicles built in China face steep U.S. import tariffs under current trade policy, which raises Waymo's cost on every Ojai it lands ^[12]. The base Zeekr vehicles ship without any Chinese connected-car technology and are sent to Waymo's Arizona factory to be outfitted with the self-driving system ^[13]. So the cheaper vehicle arrives with a tariff surcharge attached, and the savings are a net figure nobody outside Waymo can currently see.

The volume numbers show where this is heading and how far behind deployment sits. A company spokesperson put the commercial Ojai fleet at about 300 vehicles today ^[14]. Research firm MoffettNathanson, which tracks imports through detailed shipping receipts, says Waymo is on pace to bring 5,000 Ojais into the United States by the end of 2026, more than double the current Jaguar fleet, with 725 arriving in July alone ^[15][16][17]. That implies a Jaguar fleet under 2,500 vehicles ^[18]. It also means a single month of imports is roughly 2.4 times the entire deployed Ojai fleet ^[19]. The constraint is not vehicles landing at port; it is outfitting, validating and putting them into revenue service.

Watch three things. First, whether Denver, Las Vegas and San Diego get the Ojai this year as planned, and whether new permissions convert into service; Waymo was granted approval days earlier to operate driverless cars in Sacramento and San Diego ^[20][21]. Second, whether riders eventually get to choose between Ojai and Jaguar, which Waymo says will happen once there are enough Ojais ^[22] and which will produce the first real preference data. Third, reliability under a new platform: Waymo suspended freeway service in May and recalled vehicles after some drove into closed construction zones, restoring freeway access only in July ^[23]. Waymo is still not available in Ojai, California ^[24].