Published · 5h agoLeadership2 min read
12 Models Priced Satoshi's Coins. Not One of the Answers Can Be Marked Wrong.
Neither supplied study reports a correctness rate, and neither poses a question that has an answer key. Twelve models were asked; what came back cannot be graded.
Context for builders, not their beat.See today for builders
What happened
- news.bitcoin.com gave 12 leading AI models an identical prompt asking them to use a simple Bayesian scenario tree to estimate the probability that Satoshi Nakamoto's 1.1 million bitcoins will ever move and that Nakamoto's identity will ever be definitively revealed.
- The panel was Grok 4.3 Expert, ChatGPT 5.5, Claude Sonnet 5, Claude Fable 5, Gemini 3.1 Pro, Deepseek Deepthink, Kimi K2.6 Instant, Qwen 3.7-Plus, Manus Lite, Pi AI, Mistral AI Vibe and Microsoft Copilot.
- The article's key takeaways state that ChatGPT 5.5 saw 20% movement odds while Gemini 3.1 Pro put the figure under 5%.
- Grok 4.3 Expert assigned deceased creator with inaccessible keys 42%, living individuals committed to perpetual secrecy 33%, a coordinated small team 15% and other scenarios 10%, yielding 8% odds the bitcoin ever moves and 14% odds of definitive identity revelation.
- Deepseek Deepthink assigned deceased 45%, alive permanently inactive 30%, alive awaiting trigger 15% and other 10%, estimating 5% coin movement and 8% identity revelation.
Compiled by The Board RoomSomething wrong?How this is made
Why it matters
The three answers printed in full rest on nearly the same prior. Grok 4.3 Expert put a deceased creator with inaccessible keys at 42%, Deepseek Deepthink at 45%, Manus Lite at 45% [4][5][6]. Out of those three points of disagreement came odds of 8%, 5% and 3% that the coins ever move [4][5][6], which makes Grok's figure 2.7 times Manus Lite's [13]. The priors are not what separates them. What separates them is the conditional that none of the three printed: how likely a spend is inside each branch. Manus Lite conceded the point, calling the branch values purely speculative, and Deepseek drew its line elsewhere, treating 16 years of wallet inactivity and the confirmed deaths of early associates as factual while motives and trigger conditions were speculation [7][8]. Both caveats were required by the prompt, which told each model to distinguish evidence-based assumption from speculation in one sentence [9].
Add ChatGPT 5.5 and Gemini 3.1 Pro from the key takeaways and five of the twelve panel members have a movement figure anyone can quote; the other seven are absent from the material [11].
None of the five can be scored. The coins have been dormant since 2010 [18], and the question is whether they will ever move [1], which no calendar settles. The academic source sits in the same position by construction: Infinity-Chat is assembled from queries that admit a wide range of plausible answers with no single ground truth [14]. So a run-level correctness rate has nothing to attach to here. Neither source states one, and neither exercise supplies the answer key that would produce one [19].
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
news.bitcoin.com gave 12 leading AI models an identical prompt asking them to use a simple Bayesian scenario tree to estimate the probability that Satoshi Nakamoto's 1.1 million bitcoins will ever move and that Nakamoto's identity will ever be definitively revealed.
- [2]
The panel was Grok 4.3 Expert, ChatGPT 5.5, Claude Sonnet 5, Claude Fable 5, Gemini 3.1 Pro, Deepseek Deepthink, Kimi K2.6 Instant, Qwen 3.7-Plus, Manus Lite, Pi AI, Mistral AI Vibe and Microsoft Copilot.
ReportedView cited source - [3]
The article's key takeaways state that ChatGPT 5.5 saw 20% movement odds while Gemini 3.1 Pro put the figure under 5%.
- [4]
Grok 4.3 Expert assigned deceased creator with inaccessible keys 42%, living individuals committed to perpetual secrecy 33%, a coordinated small team 15% and other scenarios 10%, yielding 8% odds the bitcoin ever moves and 14% odds of definitive identity revelation.
- [5]
Deepseek Deepthink assigned deceased 45%, alive permanently inactive 30%, alive awaiting trigger 15% and other 10%, estimating 5% coin movement and 8% identity revelation.
- [6]
Manus Lite assigned a deceased lone creator 45%, a living individual committed to permanent anonymity 30%, a multi-person collective 20% and other scenarios 5%, implying 3% odds the bitcoin ever moves and 12% odds of a definitive identity revelation.
Sources & coverage · 2 publishers
The reporting this story was synthesized from, earliest first. Every link goes to the original.
- news.bitcoin.com5h agoChatGPT, Claude Fable and Grok Forecast Whether Satoshi’s 1.1M Bitcoin Fortune Ever Moves
Cited in this coverage: news.bitcoin.com
Cited in this coverage: news.bitcoin.com key takeaways
Cited in this coverage: Grok 4.3 Expert, via news.bitcoin.com
Cited in this coverage: Deepseek Deepthink, via news.bitcoin.com
Cited in this coverage: Manus Lite, via news.bitcoin.com
- proceedings.neurips.cc5h agoThe Open-Ended Homogeneity of Language Models (and Beyond)
