Prop 40 leads 48-41, which is exactly the position a wealth tax loses from

A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times found Proposition 40, which would impose a one-time 5% tax on the assets of billionaires who resided in California as of Jan. 1, leading 48% to 41% among likely voters, with 11% undecided ^[1][2]. By the poll director's own stated rule that is a weak position, and by any practical standard it is close enough that high-net-worth planning has to treat the measure as live until Nov. 3 ^[3][5].

IGS poll director Mark DiCamillo said the failure to crack 50% at this point is a potential red flag, because Californians undecided on ballot measures traditionally break against them ^[3]. "It's got an early lead, but it's not a very large lead, and it's not a majority," he said ^[4]. Run his rule to its conclusion: if every undecided voter votes no, the measure loses 52-48 ^[6]. The 7-point lead sits against a stated margin of error of about 2.5 percentage points in the likely voter sample ^[7][14].

The stakes per taxpayer are simple arithmetic. A one-time 5% levy on assets is $50 million per $1 billion of assets ^[17]. The measure was written by a healthcare workers' union to offset an estimated $100 billion in federal healthcare cuts approved by Trump and congressional Republicans ^[8]. Democrats are split: Gov. Gavin Newsom argues it will push the wealthy out of a state whose volatile budget already depends on its richest residents, while the California Democratic Party, leading progressives and Sen. Bernie Sanders back it, Sanders calling it a modest and necessary tax ^[9][10].

The harder read is the two countermeasures. Proposition 41 would bar new taxes from being exempt from voter-approved spending limits and require audits of new levies; Proposition 42 would ban new taxes on personal property and some retroactive state taxes ^[11]. If Prop 40 passes and either countermeasure receives more votes, the billionaires' tax does not take effect ^[11]. Prop 41 polls 35-37; Prop 42 polls 40-37, meaning net margins of minus 2 and plus 3 ^[12][19]. Roughly a quarter of voters surveyed on those measures were undecided, and DiCamillo expects that to move as well-organized and well-funded no campaigns ramp up ^[12][13]. Prop 42 currently trails Prop 40's support level by 8 points, and the mechanic that matters is relative vote totals, not each measure's own majority ^[11][18].

The subgroup pattern cuts against the yes side's turnout math. Younger Californians are far more supportive than seniors, and minorities, women and lower-income voters more supportive than white voters, men and those earning at least $200,000; union households support it while non-union households split evenly ^[15]. DiCamillo called turnout pivotal, noting younger voters historically turn out less in midterms unless energized by figures such as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani ^[16]. The survey polled 4,207 registered voters online in English and Spanish from Aug. 3-9, 2,310 of them likely voters ^[14].

Watch three things. Whether Prop 40 crosses 50% in subsequent IGS reads, since a measure sitting in the 40s in August is where a no campaign wants it ^[3]. Whether Prop 42's undecideds break yes as spending arrives, because that is the cheapest path to nullification ^[11][13]. And note that the report describes a Jan. 1 residency test without specifying the year, so the relevant date may already be behind the calendar rather than ahead of the ballot ^[20].