Gemini's revenue grew 37% while the exchange underneath it shrank by two-thirds

Gemini reported a second-quarter net loss of $107.7 million on August 13, and its shares fell more than 7% in after-hours trading ^[1]. The company would like the headline to be total revenue up 37% year over year to $45.5 million from $33.3 million ^[2]; the number that actually describes the franchise is exchange trading volume of $3.8 billion, down from $11.3 billion a year earlier ^[3].

That is a 66% decline in the thing the company was built to do ^[22]. Total assets on the platform fell from $18.2 billion to $8.4 billion, a 54% drop, which the company attributes to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies losing roughly half their value over the period ^[4][23]. Exchange revenue fell 38% to $12.5 million ^[5], which implies about $20.2 million a year ago ^[24] and means the exchange went from roughly 61% of total revenue to 27% in four quarters ^[25][26]. Monthly transacting users rose 11% ^[6]. Customers did not leave; they simply stopped churning their accounts.

What replaced the missing fees was plastic. Credit card revenue rose 231% to $16.2 million ^[7], now $3.7 million larger than the exchange itself ^[27]. Backing out the growth rate, cards contributed about $11.3 million of the $12.2 million total revenue increase, or roughly 93% of it ^[28][29]. Staking added $4 million, up 50% ^[8]. The prediction market produced $500,000, up from $400,000, about 1% of revenue, though event contracts traded rose 93% from the first quarter and total contracts passed 225 million ^[9][30]. The named lines add to $33.2 million, leaving about $12.3 million of the quarter disclosed only in aggregate ^[31].

The loss narrowed 19% from $133.2 million ^[10], and still runs at roughly 2.4 times quarterly revenue ^[32]. Chief Executive Tyler Winklevoss said the results "reflect our ongoing efforts to reduce operating expenses while diversifying revenue" ^[11]. President Cameron Winklevoss said the platform "has changed more in the past nine months than it did in the past decade" ^[12]. That is not a boast so much as a description of necessity: a 27%-of-revenue exchange cannot fund the company.

The build-out continues. Gemini launched its own derivatives clearinghouse this month after Commodity Futures Trading Commission approval in April, with the intent to clear futures, options and perpetuals itself ^[13]. It launched commission-free US stock trading in July ^[14]. Earlier reports had it cutting 25% of staff and exiting the UK, European Union and Australia to concentrate on America ^[15].

The competitive read is unflattering. Coinbase reported in July a record 10.3% share of crypto trading volume, up from 9.1% in the first quarter ^[16], a 14th consecutive quarter of adjusted earnings ^[17], prediction-market contracts and revenue up 106% quarter on quarter, and 88% of net income from sources other than bitcoin spot trading ^[18]. Fortune, per this report, put Coinbase's revenue at nearly 40 times Gemini's in the third quarter of 2025 ^[19]. Robinhood is running the same combination of crypto, prediction markets and equities in one app ^[20]. A Goldman Sachs analyst has described a shrinking crypto market cap as something that "weighs on asset level-driven revenue streams" ^[21].

Watch whether card revenue can repeat 231% off a much larger base, whether 225 million contracts ever convert into more than $500,000, and whether platform assets stop falling. Note also that the source dates the prediction market launch to December 2025 and cites a third-quarter 2025 revenue comparison inside a second-quarter report ^[9][19]; the timeline as published does not reconcile.