A letter from six Nobel economists asks Californians to treat Proposition 40 as the start of a movement other states, Washington and other countries copy. The vote is in November, and the state's own pollster has supporters behind.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives82
- Confidence56
Two law firms hired by different tiers of SEIU examined Dave Regan's conduct. One corroborated an account that he pressed the state council to endorse his retroactive 5% wealth tax under threat of a federal labor investigation.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives90
- Confidence55
Proposition 40 would take 5% once from anyone worth over $1 billion. August polling puts it at 48% among likely voters and 75% among 18-to-29s. The composition of the November electorate is the only number that decides it.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+19
- Incentives84
- Confidence52
A one-time 5% tax on billion-dollar net worths was certified for November 2026 and would reach back to residency on January 1. Counsel has already put the departure threat in writing.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives86
- Confidence48
California's billionaire tax faces a nine-figure defense built as ballot engineering: two counter-measures that only have to outpoll Prop 40, not beat it head-on.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives88
- Confidence64