International oil prices have passed $100 while the US Navy narrows its Hormuz escort windows to two a day, and the overland pipeline that was the alternative to the strait is offline after a drone attack.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 4%
- Operator
- Operator 38%
- Investor
- Investor 58%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives40
- Confidence58
Six months into a war that has been formally under ceasefire since June, the US says it struck Iranian oil tankers and Tehran's chief negotiator promises heavier retaliation, which changes what a charterer has to underwrite.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives78
- Confidence56
Fred Ehrsam's Primavera holds a production-sharing contract with PDVSA in the Orinoco Belt, where Rystad Energy expects significant new output only around 2035 and calls execution, not geology, the binding constraint.
Reality
- Evidence36
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives62
- Confidence41
GasBuddy has California's diesel average at $7.91 a gallon and the national average past $6 for the first time. The extra $700m a day Americans are paying for fuel works out near $255bn over a year.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives58
- Confidence48
Crude topped $101 and US diesel passed $200 a barrel for only the second time ever, leaving roughly $99 of refining margin between them, the piece of the shock that sits in refining capacity, not crude supply.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption63
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives72
- Confidence45
Twelve Inner Mongolian projects worth 186.46bn yuan were signed alongside a free trade zone platform whose stated jobs include token metering and cross-border settlement.
Reality
- Evidence36
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives82
- Confidence44
Venezuela's new petroleum minister pitched 916 exploration opportunities and 192 trillion cubic feet of gas. The names on paper so far are Hunt Oil and SLB.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption27
- Hype gap+52
- Incentives82
- Confidence55
Energy Secretary Chris Wright says Middle East flows are back to about 15 million bpd. Tanker trackers put Hormuz alone at 4 to 8 million, and the spread is the number that matters.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives60
- Confidence30