benchmark
A U.S. Commerce Department measure of price changes for consumer goods and services, closely watched as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
US 10-year Treasury yields hit 5.34% on 1 October, their highest in 24 years, while oil traded back above $100 a barrel. Rates and oil both reversed within days, so teams planning Q4 headcount, infrastructure or fundraising should budget both as ranges.
Reality
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, its lowest in 12 years. Jobs data out the same day held steady. The drop traces to fuel and prices, and those are what a spending forecast built on labour figures alone misses.
Reality
US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 5.30% on Wednesday, their highest since 2002, even though inflation came in cooler. Whatever drove it, growth or government debt, a cash-flow model that counted on cooling inflation to lower its discount rate now needs a higher one.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishersReality
Bureau of Economic Analysis revisions cut July's core-services PCE inflation by 34 basis points to 3.35%, partly via new methods for three categories. August came in at the same 3.35% on the new method, so the revision lowered the level of inflation without slowing it.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
Kevin Hassett, the White House's top economist, says three-month core inflation near 2% leaves the Fed little room to raise rates. Wednesday's August PCE release will test his window on the inflation gauge the Fed itself prefers.
Reality
Core services and a sudden run-up in computer prices are holding the Fed's preferred gauge 1.35 points above target. Futures put the September choice at hold or hike.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
The Fed took its target range to 3.75-4.00% on September 16 and raised its median PCE forecast to 3.7% in the same document, so the real cost of holding a metal that pays no coupon moved by about a sixth of a point.
Perspective Coverage
17 publishersReality
The Fed's Q2 accounts show household money-market holdings up 12.8% over the year to $5.1 trillion at yields below 3.75% after fees, with August CPI at 3.4% and the small-CD balances savers control flat for seven months.
Reality
The BEA publishes its annual national accounts revision on September 30, fourteen days after the FOMC votes, and Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan both model it taking 0.1 to 0.2 points off core inflation back to 2021.
Reality
Processed intermediate goods rose 11.5 percent over 12 months while the prices firms finally charge rose 5.4 percent. Diesel accounts for most of August's monthly move, and the measure that excludes distributor margins accounts for the rest.
Reality
Wolf Richter annualizes August's 0.40% monthly rise at 4.9% and core services at 4.0%, while the year-over-year rates for the headline index and for core services both sat where July left them, at 3.4% and 3.0%.
Reality
Headline PCE at 3.7% is the number Warsh quoted, but the six-month annualized run of 4.1% is what decides whether September is one hike or the first of several, and this chair does not plan to say in advance.
Reality
Fed funds futures went from 63% positioned for higher rates to roughly even in a single morning, and the number doing most of the work may be a Commerce Department measurement change worth 20 basis points.
Reality
July headline PCE at 3.7 per cent puts a September Fed hike near even money, and the load-bearing piece of the argument is a chart claim about how little sits above today's 2-year and 10-year yields.
Reality
The bank's own estimate is 25%. The more useful detail is that the market's hike probability travelled from 12% to 45% on oil headlines, not on inflation prints.
Reality