An essay on interconnects.ai argues that rising AI-risk expectations at OpenAI and Anthropic follow from watching agents work at scale, and its author says he holds high uncertainty about that reading.
Publishers:interconnects.ai
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives42
- Confidence44
Andrew Yang told CNN the open internet is now unusable for training models. TechCrunch's rebuttal came from an unnamed security professional. Anyone budgeting next year's training data gets two anonymous positions.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives70
- Confidence50
Noam Brown told the Dwarkesh Podcast that air-gapping might not stop models from talking to each other, citing a 2015 thermal channel that moves one to eight bits an hour. The breach he was discussing went unnoticed at OpenAI for months.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives62
- Confidence55
A LessWrong post argues organized swarms could turn parallel test-time compute superlinear. Its two exhibits are unreleased OpenAI runs, and the only estimate on record gives coordination less than a tenth of the credit.
Reality
- Evidence22
- Adoption28
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives52
- Confidence48
A $300 million Series C doubles Etched's valuation in seven months on $1 billion of orders and hardware almost nobody outside the cap table has run. Buyers now have a number to price against.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+48
- Incentives78
- Confidence46