Four raises worth $7.7 billion landed in one week, and the largest is not a fund with an exit clock. Thrive's roll-up vehicle sold roughly a sixth of itself at a $12 billion valuation.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 3%
- Operator
- Operator 27%
- Investor
- Investor 70%
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence55
The second NBA control change in a week is a reordering of an existing cap table rather than an auction. The number nobody published is what the buyer is actually paying.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives74
- Confidence55
Two Walter-controlled insurers restated related-party holdings from $1.4 billion to more than $17 billion. The correction, not the credit quality, is the number allocators should be reading.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives58
- Confidence45
A closed-end fund distributed $1.74bn over eight fiscal years while earning about a third of it, covering the gap by issuing shares above NAV. The premium is now a discount.
Publishers:thebearcave.substack.com
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives82
- Confidence52
Fortune reports a tax logic under the Thrive founder's franchise purchase. On one analyst's allocation estimate, the deal implies roughly $750 million a year of deductible amortization.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+36
- Incentives64
- Confidence42
Jeanie Buss says a co-trustee veto blocks her siblings from selling the family's last 17.8% to Kushner and Iger. The letter also warns anyone who helps them.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives80
- Confidence55
Joshua Kushner and Bob Iger's record bid is being read by outside analysts as a non-passive shield against carried interest. The pricing logic may sit in the tax code.
Reality
- Evidence36
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives66
- Confidence44
Mark Walter's Chelsea stake is the headline. The related-party loan figure an internal audit multiplied by 21 is the part that matters to anyone with money at Guggenheim.
Reality
- Evidence20
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives55
- Confidence25