NHTSA projects the Trump administration's final fuel economy rule will leave the 2031 fleet average at 34.9 mpg, down from 50.4 mpg under Biden-era rules. For automakers, the harder question is how long the lower target lasts, and a Kelley Blue Book editor gives it two to three years.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives70
- Confidence60
US-built cars fell to 28.4% of Canadian new-vehicle sales in the first half of 2026 from 35.4% a year earlier, JD Power Canada data show. Japanese and Korean builders took more than half of that lost share, and the US levy on Canadian cars and parts is expected to reach 50% in January.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
Copper has climbed as much as 20% this year and an EV uses 2.9 times more of it than a gas car, so the buyer interest that $4.47 gasoline created is landing on an industry that already cut its capacity.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption32
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives62
- Confidence55
US dealership service and parts sales hit $164.6 billion last year, up 48% in five years, while average profit per public store sits well below its 2022 peak.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives62
- Confidence55
A utility foundation with a $20 million commitment reports $555 million in follow-on capital, a multiple National Grid's $500 million venture arm has not matched. The lesson is distribution, not dollars.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption46
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives72
- Confidence40