BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said bond sales by AI firms are pushing up long-term rates even as AI stock gains have eased financial conditions. The easing side of that balance depends on profits that he warned may not come.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives25
- Confidence66
Sanae Takaichi is due to address Japan's parliament with a 370 trillion yen, 14-year investment plan whose public share her government has not specified. The speech tests the fiscal part of a bond selloff that also runs on war-driven energy costs and rate hikes.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
Japan's 10-year bond yield hit 3.075%, its highest since 1996, after the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25%. BlackRock's scenario for money shifting home from Treasuries puts it at $55 billion, 5% of Japan's $1.1 trillion holding.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives35
- Confidence45
The Bank of Japan's policy rate is now the highest since 1995, two of nine votes went against it, and the currency Washington spent last summer buying weakened anyway. The vote split is the number to watch.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence33
The 10-year JGB touched 3.027% before slipping back into the 2.9% range, while 40-year paper trades near 93 yen per 100 of face and insurers are asking their asset managers how to limit valuation losses.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives66
- Confidence52
Scott Bessent says recent yen moves are "pretty well contained." Dollar-yen sits at 160.15, a month after Washington's first yen intervention in almost 30 years. The defence has cost roughly $11bn a yen.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives74
- Confidence36
Traders put a September BOJ hike at 80 to 90 percent, the yen sits four yen off its summer low of 164, and the US Treasury Secretary is telling Tokyo to let Abenomics end by itself rather than defend it.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives62
- Confidence34
The Bank of Japan held at 1% after raising from 0.75% in June. With 2.5% inflation projected against 0.6% growth, its own forecast says the tightening is not finished.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+31
- Incentives58
- Confidence28