Australia cut refining capacity 6.9% a year over a decade as China added 2.3% a year, Energy Institute data show. China's renewed fuel export ban now falls on importers that shut their own plants, just as two wars squeeze diesel and jet fuel supply.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence45
Chinese customs figures for August show every rare-earth and critical-mineral line tracked into Japan below year-earlier volume for a second month, with the declines running from 11.2 per cent to 94.7 per cent.
Reality
- Evidence57
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives52
- Confidence56
Yttrium's export rules survived the Busan truce, and the two shipments the United States has received since February's coating-line stoppages add up to 89 tonnes against a world market estimated at 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes a year.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence48
Pezeshkian, speaking days after the weekend's exchange of fire, says Iran will reciprocate immediately if Washington returns to the June memorandum. Restoring it means restarting a 60-day clock that has already run out.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption12
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives68
- Confidence44
The doomsday scenarios never arrived, and because nothing broke, Asia's importers are funding new routes and new suppliers out of capital budgets rather than waiting out a spike they could have hedged. Halving Hormuz still has an if attached.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption44
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives58
- Confidence45
Buybacks at the long end, euros sold instead of Treasuries, Japan borrowing at an obscure Fed window. Deutsche Bank calls it soft-form repression. Duration holders pay for it in currency.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives63
- Confidence46
At least $4bn an operation against more than $40 trillion outstanding is curve management, not debt management. The demand-side problem sits offshore.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives58
- Confidence38
New orders at their strongest since January 2018 and a record 11.5 trillion yen of July exports turn a thematic trade into an order book, on a single source that dates its own data loosely.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives45
- Confidence44
July exports rose 23.2% year on year and chipmaking equipment shipments jumped 49.1%. Total export volume grew 5.2%. The difference is price and currency.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives45
- Confidence40
Annualized GDP growth fell from a revised 1.8% in Q1 2026 to roughly 0.3% in Q2 while capital spending sat at zero. Households were not the weak link.
Reality
- Evidence22
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives35
- Confidence26