Counterpoint puts Europe's Q2 shipments at a three-year low and China's sales down 8.6%, while Apple added nine points of European share. Component costs are redrawing share, not just margins.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 8%
- Operator
- Operator 32%
- Investor
- Investor 60%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence68
Apple put real aperture blades in the Pro and Pro Max and priced them at $1,199 and $1,299. CNET's reviewer loves the camera and still sends most buyers to last year's iPhone 17 at $929.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives50
- Confidence62
Killing the non-Pro model leaves last year's iPhone 17, repriced to $899, as the cheap option until spring, which makes this a decision about which quarter revenue lands in as much as about margin.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence58
Ten million foldables at about $2,550 is $25.5bn, roughly 4% of industry revenue from 1% of its units, and the base iPhone that led global unit share in the second quarter now waits until spring 2027.
Reality
- Evidence20
- Adoption12
- Hype gap+58
- Incentives45
- Confidence30
IDC's own inputs put the foldable iPhone at roughly 1% of units and 4.4% of industry revenue, while the demand it wrote off in one forecast revision exceeds the entire foldable category.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+46
- Incentives58
- Confidence33
MacRumors reports Apple will ship only Pro and foldable models in September, with the standard iPhone 18 held to spring 2027. Volume refresh plans need new dates.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives55
- Confidence33