IRS privacy chief Kathleen Walters had to contain the risk of 100,000 staff answering OPM's February 2025 email asking what they did last week. In the Guardian's account, the all-staff order landed first on the office built to stop disclosure.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence40
Meta cut $3.9 billion from its 2025 tax bill with research credits after classing AI data-center chips as pilot models, The New York Times reported. A reserve that grew alongside the credits suggests an IRS win would cost Meta more in cash than in reported profit.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives65
- Confidence58
Sen. Steve Daines's 13-section draft would stop taxing near-$1 stablecoin payments and network fees of $10 or less, while extending wash-sale rules to crypto. The relief goes to people who spend stablecoins, and the cost falls on trading desks that sell at a loss and buy straight back.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence40
Three 11th Circuit judges refused to pause sanctions over Trump's $10 billion IRS suit, keeping a bar on citing its settlement in official proceedings. The bar appears to reach Attorney General Todd Blanche's audit shield for the Trump family and business until the appeal is decided.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives72
- Confidence60
White House order routes federal services with over 100,000 yearly users through America.gov, using Login.gov as the one sign-in. Agencies keep custody of their records, so what gets concentrated is one credential that reaches every connected service.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence65
Eric Chase Saavedra, the ex-LA sheriff's detective who ran Adam Iza's guard firm, got 21 months in prison, the last of five deputies sentenced. The case record shows Iza's roughly $100,000 a month also bought police database searches and a court warrant, a risk that comes with any security firm staffed by serving officers.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
IRS Notice 2026-60 raises the high-low per diem to $329 a day in high-cost areas and $230 elsewhere from Oct. 1. With meals frozen, the whole raise goes to lodging and incidentals, and a city added to the high-cost list is worth $99 a day.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives10
- Confidence70
Iris Au got 18 months and a $1.48 million restitution order for failing to report $2.6 million that moved through her own bank accounts between 2020 and 2023. The charge was filing a false tax return.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence50
Eric Zwick and Owen Zidar spent months making the IRS's individual and business filing systems talk to each other. When they sorted the top 1% by pass-through profits, doctors and auto dealers came out near the top.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives55
- Confidence45
Applications for employer tax IDs rose about 8% to 5.6 million last year, which Business Insider reads partly as a weaker labor market. The county detail shows how much of that count is address-shopping.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives55
- Confidence58
The credential is being underwritten as a switching cost rather than a fee line, and the price shows up in hours that would otherwise carry fee-paying advisory relationships. Nobody in the account has measured the churn it prevents.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives62
- Confidence45
UnitedHealth says it will vigorously contest IRS notices covering 2017 through 2020. Coca-Cola's $529 million reserve against a possible $20 billion bill shows why disclosure is not sizing.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives62
- Confidence60