other
Political and economic alliance of six Gulf Arab states—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman—coordinating energy, security, and trade policy.
International oil prices have passed $100 while the US Navy narrows its Hormuz escort windows to two a day, and the overland pipeline that was the alternative to the strait is offline after a drone attack.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishersReality
At the UN General Assembly he said he may annihilate the Islamic Republic if no deal comes soon, and hours later confirmed that US and Iranian officials had met.
Reality
Brent averaged about $69 a barrel last year and trades near $100 now, roughly 45% higher, six months into the war on Iran. Bank of America's base case for the second half is $83, with a $150 tail if energy infrastructure is hit.
Reality
Brent stayed above $100 even after a 2.81% drop, U.S. diesel reached $6.06 a gallon, and Saudi output fell to a three-decade low. Reported hike odds of 86.5% leave 13.5% for the outcome that would move more.
Reality
Friday's 2.9% fall prices Monday's first Iran-GCC ministerial since the war began, at a moment when regional exports sit near two-thirds of prewar levels and the Houthis are hitting Saudi Arabia's Red Sea bypass.
Reality
Iran wants a per-barrel fee for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and the three main scenarios on offer all end with someone paying. Freight models built on mean reversion are the exposure.
Reality