other
CNBC subscription service where Jim Cramer and a portfolio director run a model stock portfolio, publish trade notes, and hold member meetings.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
September payrolls of 29,000, against an 84,000 consensus, lifted the Nasdaq 1.2% on Friday and turned a losing week into a 0.45% gain. Every major index was down through Thursday, so the AI-led advance depends on the Fed staying on hold.
Reality
CME FedWatch odds of an increase at the Sept. 15-16 Fed meeting rose from 58% to 87% in a week as crude and Treasury yields climbed together. A week ago a hike was already the majority call.
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The CNBC Investing Club says it is getting more selective about AI. Its September buy list still runs Intel, Micron at six times fiscal 2027 earnings and Meta at about 19, next to Kimberly Clark and BNY.
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Consensus fiscal 2027 earnings estimates jumped almost 29% overnight while the stock settled around 5%, which leaves Dell roughly 19% cheaper on forward numbers, a gap that points to buyer appetite rather than fundamentals as the shortfall.
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Bernstein models Meta's ad revenue up 27% while growth in Google's network slipped 1%, which finally gives the capex argument a numerator and a denominator, provided you accept the comparison underneath it.
Reality
Nvidia, Salesforce and CrowdStrike all beat, and software repriced by a fifth in one session on the argument that AI capex is additive. Then Warsh moved the odds of a September hike to 55% and the tape barely blinked.
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Meta, Amazon and Alphabet are now paying for data centres with bonds, equity and asset-manager ventures. S&P says leverage is not blowing up; Moody's says the buildout already threatens credit quality.
Reality
Management guided to at most $288 million of net-new ARR and booked $333 million, up 51% from roughly $220 million a year earlier. A budget line being treated as non-discretionary should be easier than that to forecast.
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Only 71% of the headline number is money Meta owes. The remaining 30% is released if YouTube and TikTok adopt the same limits, and the $200 billion supposedly avoided is one shareholder's estimate.
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Treasury more than doubled its buybacks of long-dated debt on Wednesday and bought less than two sessions of calm. That is the variable to track, not the AI headlines.
Reality
A 30-year yield above 5.33% and Iran-driven oil prices are overwhelming good numbers from good companies. Walmart down 9% and Micron down 20% from its highs tell the same story.
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