Investors bid the last of China's four little dragons of AI chipmaking up 206 per cent on its Shanghai debut, chasing the nearly 60 per cent of the domestic AI accelerator market that foreign suppliers held in 2025.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives70
- Confidence55
Prosecutors opened in Brooklyn calling Huawei a criminal enterprise, but Epoch AI's numbers put the ceiling on China's AI-chip stack in high-bandwidth memory, which could hold Huawei near 1% of Nvidia's output through 2028.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption41
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives63
- Confidence47
Export controls walled off China's AI demand from TSMC and Samsung. SMIC, the only domestic route to 7nm-class logic, is now repricing the captive pool it inherited.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption80
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives62
- Confidence63
Ajinomoto has reportedly told mainland customers it will cut supply of high-end packaging film by 30 percent. It holds about 95 percent of that market; China supplies under 5 percent of its own.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives71
- Confidence48
TrendForce now expects domestic silicon to take about 90% of China's AI accelerator market in 2026, up from 45%. The arithmetic says the constraint is fab and packaging output, not Washington.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption48
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives62
- Confidence40