Brown University's tracker has the Iran war billing US consumers $1m every two minutes, which is about $720m a day, and the line rising fastest inside that total is the diesel one that freight buyers pay.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives55
- Confidence45
A Foreign Affairs analysis argues Washington and Tehran each prefer the stalemate to the price of ending it, which puts Gulf shipping and energy risk on a multi-year footing and could leave a permanent toll behind.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives55
- Confidence34
Pezeshkian, speaking days after the weekend's exchange of fire, says Iran will reciprocate immediately if Washington returns to the June memorandum. Restoring it means restarting a 60-day clock that has already run out.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption12
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives68
- Confidence44
A Telegram post claiming fresh missile and drone strikes costs the IRGC almost nothing and gives underwriters a reason to keep quoting elevated rates on a fifth of the world's daily oil, which turns the premium into a budget line.
Reality
- Evidence22
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives76
- Confidence34
Pezeshkian says none of the clauses is a surrender and that only Washington is bound. The terms a shipowner cares about are therefore written in Tehran, and revisable there.
Reality
- Evidence18
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+46
- Incentives78
- Confidence24
Abu Dhabi suspended trade and financial transactions with Tehran until further notice. That shuts a channel supplying more than 30% of Iranian imports, most of it third countries' goods.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives74
- Confidence55