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Long-horizon research program economics

How an eighteen-year institutional bet is justified after the fact, including efficiency multiples, effort estimates and self-reported downstream uptake.

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science2 distinct publishers

Janelia closes its 18-year fly connectome bet with all 166,000 neurons mapped

The wiring of a male fruit fly's brain and nerve cord is now public, and the payload for anyone planning a bigger map is a claimed thousandfold gain in connectome efficiency whose denominator nobody has stated.

Publishers:livescience.com · phys.org

Reality

Evidence71
Adoption62
Hype gap+24
Incentives72

Confidence67

Long-horizon research program economics — Clarity Today