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Topic

Oil and energy prices

Prices for crude oil, gasoline, diesel and other fuels, and the supply routes and conflicts that move them.

Current clusters

invest2 publishers

Bond selloff lifts the discount rate under long-dated valuations to 5.145%

Traders betting on lasting inflation pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.145% on Thursday, its highest since the 2007 financial crisis. Oil back above $105 keeps that bet alive, and AXA's chief economist names two more pressures, tech-sector borrowing and US debt, that would survive a truce.

Reality

Evidence70
Adoption
Insufficient
Hype gap+10
Incentives
Insufficient
Confidence65
invest17 publishers

The FOMC decides next week before its preferred inflation gauge for August arrives

Headline inflation held at 3.4% in August while core eased to 2.4%, and the priced odds of a quarter-point hike on Wednesday ran anywhere from about 70% to better than 90% depending on which publisher was reading the tape.

Perspective Coverage

17 publishers
Builder
Builder 8%
Operator
Operator 25%
Investor
Investor 67%

Reality

Evidence78
Adoption60
Hype gap+15
Incentives45
Confidence75