Topic
Market-implied hike probabilities, bank forecasts, and the divergence between them.
Core services and a sudden run-up in computer prices are holding the Fed's preferred gauge 1.35 points above target. Futures put the September choice at hold or hike.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
Speculators built a record $51.4 billion net dollar long by late July, weeks before G5 currency option volatility sank to a post-COVID low of 5.33. Currency protection got cheaper even as year-end rate bets climbed from 3.05% to above 4%.
Reality
ARCC, CSWC, OCSL and OTF have all issued bonds into a higher curve. The Fed turn that raised their funding cost is the same one Seeking Alpha credits with supporting third-quarter net income, and both land in one quarter.
Reality
A 60 per cent chance of a quarter-point hike prices about 15 basis points of tightening and knocked IonQ down 4 per cent, but no discount rate explains why the Defiance Quantum ETF is up 36 per cent while D-Wave is down 34.
Reality
Headline PCE at 3.7% is the number Warsh quoted, but the six-month annualized run of 4.1% is what decides whether September is one hike or the first of several, and this chair does not plan to say in advance.
Reality
Ordering ministries to plan bulk purchases of cheap homes tells lenders what the government's own base case is, and since the plan names no budget, no threshold and no buyer, the only priced thing in it is a rate forecast.
Reality
The FOMC held at 3.50%-3.75%, but a quarter of the voting committee wanted 25 basis points immediately. Portfolios still built around the December 2025 cut are on the wrong side of that argument.
Reality