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Inference Pricing Economics — Clarity Today

Topic

Inference Pricing Economics

Per-million-token pricing spreads between cheap open-weight endpoints and frontier proprietary models, and the divergence between token share and spend share.

Current clusters

invest1 distinct publisher

DeepSeek V4 doubled its OpenRouter token share, and the bill it displaced was ~130x bigger

OpenRouter says DeepSeek went from 9% to 18% of tokens in six months, with agent loops doing most of the work. Token share and spend share are not the same league table.

Publishers:openrouter.ai

Reality

Evidence52
Adoption74
Hype gap+18
Incentives70

Confidence50