Home Today’s Briefing Deep Dives In Play Trending For You Discover My Stack Saved Off Radar Search

Loading today’s stories

Today

AI-assisted reporting, grounded in a per-article claim ledger. Perspective Coverage and Reality Strip separate source viewpoints from evidence, adoption, hype, incentives, and confidence.

Today

Front Page
Today’s Briefing
Newsletters
Trending
For You
Discover
My Stack
Saved
Off Radar
Search

Sections

Security
Build
Invest
Product
Leadership
Science

Company

About
Mission
How this is made
Evidence Index
The desks
The sources we read
Corrections
Press and brand
The daily edition

Trending now

Enterprise AI Agents
China Data Center Revenue Exposure
Multi-Agent Coordination
AI Agent Security
Teen online safety regulation
AI Infrastructure Buildout
Retail Investor Protection
Software Supply Chain Security
Evaluation Integrity
Tokenized Deposits

How this is made

Today For You My Stack Off Radar Search

Extreme-event model evaluation — Clarity Today

Topic

Extreme-event model evaluation

The extrapolation problem, tail-event skill, flagging of out-of-distribution inputs, and the need for standardised protocols when scoring forecast models on record-breaking events.

Current clusters

science1 distinct publisher

NOAA's 69% record El Nino call lands where forecast models are weakest

The odds now favour a record season. The AI forecasting being pitched at the countries with the least margin is the least tested on exactly that kind of event.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence38
Adoption24
Hype gap+14
Incentives66

Confidence42