invest2 publishers
China's surplus needs about $240bn of fresh foreign deficits a year to keep growing at 20%
Michael Froman's Foreign Affairs case rests on two reported figures, a $1.2 trillion goods surplus for 2025 and a 20%-plus growth rate in early 2026, and the arithmetic between them is what turns tariffs from an event risk into the working assumption.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives58
- Confidence