Topic
FOMC minutes and the Jackson Hole symposium as the next scheduled signals on committee posture.
Headline PCE at 3.7% is the number Warsh quoted, but the six-month annualized run of 4.1% is what decides whether September is one hike or the first of several, and this chair does not plan to say in advance.
Reality
He left his dot off the June projections and publishes rate briefs that barely differ, on the argument that transparency about future policy is no virtue in itself. Rate-sensitive plans now rest on the planner's own forecast.
Reality
Fed funds futures went from 63% positioned for higher rates to roughly even in a single morning, and the number doing most of the work may be a Commerce Department measurement change worth 20 basis points.
Reality
Two months into the job, the Fed chair's minimalist style has become its own market variable: three words on July 29 sent yields to near two-decade highs.
Reality
The central bank argues the second-quarter collapse in net external financial assets reflects foreigners' Korean equity gains, and points investors to net external claims instead.
Reality
Thirty-year Treasuries near 5.3%, a level unseen since 2007, are tightening conditions without help from the Fed. People who sat beside Kevin Warsh say he will notice and not react.
Reality
Odds on a September Fed hold went from near coin-toss to about 67% in four weeks, and the dollar index slid to 99.5. Any plan carrying a July FX assumption is now stale.
Reality