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Jev's confidence scores cleared 86.5% of graded federal RFQs for automation at 96.7% precision
Jev's confidence scores cleared 641 of 741 quote-graded federal RFQs for automation at 96.7% precision, while a 35B Qwen model's top bucket stayed at 90.1%. In one author's benchmark, calibration decided how much of the queue could skip human review more than Jev's 2.3-point accuracy lead did.
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What happened
- A benchmark author ran Jev, the 35B mixture-of-experts Qwen3.5-35B-A3B and Laya 421M over 12,000 federal IT solicitations, grading them on what a reseller's sales team actually quoted.
- On 741 quoted deals with one clear primary class, Jev scored 91.9% accuracy, Qwen 89.6% and Laya's shipped defaults 78.0%.
- At a 0.94 confidence cutoff, Jev accepted 641 of the 741 rows, 86.5% coverage, at 96.7% observed precision against a 95% target.
- Qwen's prompt-defined "high" confidence level covered 97.8% of rows at 90.1% precision, and none of its three levels reached 95%.
Compiled by The EngineerSomething wrong?How this is made
Why it matters
- decision A team holding a 95% precision bar gets a usable auto-route rule from Jev and none from Qwen's buckets, so calibration settles the pick before the 2.3-point accuracy gap comes into it.
- cost At 90.1% precision, roughly one in ten of Qwen's auto-routed deals would start the wrong downstream job, such as a distributor price lookup on a services buy.
- constraint A reseller with a less hardware-heavy queue would have to re-fit the cutoff on its own quote history, since the gold labels behind the 0.94 figure are private.
An automation boundary is a single number. Rows above a confidence cutoff go straight into the CRM. There a hardware label can trigger a distributor price lookup, and a services label starts a statement-of-work workflow [5]. Rows below the cutoff go to a person. In the benchmark author's dev.to write-up, a cutoff counts only if it holds 95% precision on quote-graded rows [9]. Jev's expected calibration error was 0.049 [8].
At Jev's 0.94 cutoff, the 641 accepted rows hold about 620 correct labels and 21 wrong ones [1]. Across all 741 gold rows, its 91.9% accuracy works out to 681 correct and 60 wrong [2]. So about 39 of those 60 errors land in the 100 rows sent to review [3]. With 620 hits in 641, the Wilson 95% lower bound comes to about 95.0% [4]. The cutoff clears the target with almost no margin. The author reported that the bound stayed at or above 95% along the cutoff envelope [10].
Qwen ran under a different harness. It was prompted with a strict JSON schema and its answers were mapped onto the shared taxonomy, while Jev and Laya got byte-identical typed-question bundles [18]. Of its 12,000 responses, 69 were permanently malformed [4]. If the 97.8% coverage figure is measured on the same 741 rows, the high bucket holds about 725 rows and roughly 72 wrong labels [5]. That is about 3.4 times Jev's 21 [6].
Laya failed in a different way. It produced 705 distinct confidence values on 741 rows, but they were not ranked well enough to reach the target at any useful cutoff [12]. Qwen offered three places to cut and none worked. Laya offered hundreds, poorly ordered. "A classifier that is slightly more accurate but badly calibrated still leaves you without a defensible automation boundary," the author wrote [13].
I'd accept that verdict for this reseller's queue. Whether it carries anywhere else depends on the gold. The gold covers quoted opportunities only, which are a selected subset, and Hardware is 77% of the single-class rows [7]. A rule that always answered Hardware would score about 77%, roughly 571 of 741 [7]. Laya's shipped defaults sit about one point above that [8]. The 634 fulfillment labels include an unvalidated heuristic [7]. The public repository holds aggregate results only. Gold labels and per-row predictions stay private [3].
The selection rule is the part I would copy. Nine Jev variants changed the question structure and the input, and one added a 1,500-character attachment excerpt [14]. All nine scored between 91.2% and 91.9%, or 676 to 681 correct [14]. The whole spread is five rows [9]. The author picked the winner, A-S2, by a rule written before the experiments: accuracy first, then coverage at the bounded precision cutoff, then the cheaper input [15]. The excerpt existed on only 5.6% of rows, and the question bundle itself consumed most of the tokens [16]. "That is not proof that attachments never help. It is evidence that this particular excerpt strategy did not," the author wrote [17].
What to watch
- Whether the author releases per-row predictions or a gold-label sample, so the 0.94 cutoff and its Wilson bound can be checked from outside.
- A rerun that gives Qwen a finer-grained confidence signal than three prompt-defined levels; if any cutoff then clears 95%, the case for Jev narrows to the accuracy gap.
- Results on a slice with less than 77% hardware, or on the 634 fulfillment labels once their heuristic is validated.