CI&T's 95% executive confidence caps its senior subgroup at 107 of 350 payments respondents

Two figures in the same survey put a ceiling on how large the confident group can be. If 95 per cent of CI&T's executive and strategy respondents are very confident the National Payments Vision will work in practice ^[4] while the full sample of 350 comes in at 29 per cent ^[3][1], that subgroup is at most 30.5 per cent of the sample, about 107 people. That holds only where not one respondent outside it is very confident ^[1]. Shrink the subgroup and the confident share among everyone else drops fast. Put 70 executives in the sample and the other 280 respondents run at 12.5 per cent ^[2]. CI&T did not publish the subgroup sizes.

The residual 71 per cent holds everything short of very confident. CI&T asked who was very confident, so a respondent who is merely confident sits in the same remainder as one who expects a two-year slip. Support runs at 82 per cent for the Vision that HM Treasury set out in November 2024 ^[2]. That puts roughly 185 of the 350 behind a policy they are not sure lands as intended ^[3]. Crowdfund Insider's account explains the executive figure as seniority and proximity to programme design shaping how risk gets judged ^[19].

The cost sits in the migration. Eighty-five per cent of respondents say modernisation has to work with systems already in use, and 98 per cent of senior executives say it ^[8]. Testing before go-live is the most popular continuity measure, at 82 per cent ^[10]. Parallel running is one of the preferred technical routes ^[9]. Whoever runs two sets of rails at once pays to operate both for the length of the overlap.

The market splits. Replacing selected components leads at 30 per cent, with parallel running, updated data standards, new assurance processes and targeted integration all within a couple of points of it ^[9].

Every executive and strategic leader surveyed calls clear decision-making and escalation routes important. Among product and innovation specialists, the people who will build on the new rails, 59 per cent do ^[11]. The gap is 41 points ^[5].

The report came out on 10 September, one day before responses closed on the Retail Payments Infrastructure Board's consultation into the design of next-generation infrastructure ^[14][6]. That board is chaired by the Bank of England ^[14]. Ninety-seven per cent of respondents think the UK can learn from Brazil's Pix, which now reaches about 93 per cent of Brazilian adults ^[12], and a third of senior leaders want to know which Pix lessons should not be imported ^[13]. Young Pham, CI&T's global head of financial services AI, said early choices on milestones, roles, readiness rules and the path from today's stack to the target system will determine whether confidence hardens into delivery ^[16].

I think the 29 per cent is scepticism about the schedule. The most cited worry is the delivery timetable and its milestones, at 33 per cent, or about 116 of the 350 respondents ^[6][7]. The sequence so far has produced a 2025 delivery model creating the board and an industry-led Delivery Company, a November 2025 infrastructure strategy and a 2026-28 regulatory forward plan ^[18]. First among the five decisions the report says must be settled soon is a usable roadmap ^[17]. I would be wrong if the executive subgroup sits near its ceiling of about 107 ^[1]. In that case the divide is between people who have seen the plan and people who have not, and a published roadmap closes it.