Douglas reopens to Mexican cattle on Aug 24, at a fifth of pre-ban flow and on revocable terms

The sanitary logic behind the choice of Douglas was geographic. Screwworm has been recorded in 30 of Mexico's 32 states since the outbreak was detected in November 2024 ^[4], which leaves two states unrecorded ^[3], and Sonora's place on the clean side of that count is why the crossing opposite Agua Prieta went first, in Fortune's account of the decision ^[17]. Munihuasa sits in the state's southeast, near the Chihuahua and Sinaloa lines where infections have already proliferated ^[3], so the finding is not sitting on the export corridor. It does remove the premise.

Now the arithmetic the protocol implies. Annualise the terminal cap at seven days a week and Douglas clears 474,500 head a year, just under 40% of normal trade ^[1]. The opening week runs at 255,500 annualised, about 21% ^[2]. Both figures are ceilings rather than expectations, because every animal needs a radio-frequency ear tag and has to pass electronic readers, trained dogs and USDA inspectors before it steps into Arizona ^[8]. Juan Carlos Ochoa, president of the Regional Livestock Union of Sonora, said the restrictions would limit shipments and that a heavier flow is what the shortages on both sides require ^[16].

That is the reason to file this under supply management rather than relief. US ranchers could not cover the gap during the ban, which contributed to closures at some meat-processing plants and hurt feedlot operations, according to Juan Carlos Anaya of Grupo Consultor de Mercados Agricolas ^[14], and American consumers met record beef prices, with some cutting back on meat ^[15]. A fifth of the old flow, climbing toward two-fifths, moves the direction of the trade well before it moves a retail price.

The reversibility is written into the plan. The USDA has said additional ports could follow if the Douglas restart goes smoothly ^[9]. Read the other way, a restart that goes badly is grounds to close the one lane that is open, and the ban now ending was imposed in May 2025 on the same class of finding ^[2].

Mexican sellers will push at the cap for reasons that have nothing to do with US inventories. During the halt, domestic buyers paid nearly 40% below what the US market had been paying ^[11], and a Sonoran rancher quoted in the Fortune report put his own income loss for the year at 40%, adding that the episode is not over ^[12]. Mexico's cattle export business was worth $1.2 billion last year ^[13]. The willing seller is not the constraint here. The constraint is an inspection lane in Arizona and the political tolerance behind it, and both can be withdrawn faster than a feedlot can be restocked.