Redfin's five biggest Gen Z outflows run 8.4 times San Antonio's net gain

Add up the five metros with the largest net Gen Z outflows in Redfin's report and the total is 89,412: New York at 29,554, Minneapolis at 17,815, Los Angeles at 16,465, Denver at 13,882 and Detroit at 11,696 ^[19][9][10]. Those five departures together run about 8.4 times San Antonio's net gain, and New York on its own about 2.8 times it ^[20][21].

Sheharyar Bokhari, a principal economist at Redfin, put a limit on how far that flow travels. "But young Americans aren't fleeing expensive cities for the cheapest place they can find: Most are making relatively short moves, suggesting they want a better job or lower cost of living without giving up their existing networks," he said ^[8]. New York and Los Angeles sit on both generations' departure lists ^[5]. Part of a losing metro's rental demand goes to a nearby competitor.

The generational split is Redfin's own framing. "Gen Zers are chasing opportunity, while millennials are chasing space," Bokhari said ^[7]. The two destination sets are not separate, though: Dallas is on the current Gen Z top five and is also one of the metros Redfin says millennials favor for more affordable housing and space ^[24][4]. Three of the five Gen Z destinations are in Texas ^[13].

The office evidence here is one agent's account. Kristin Sanchez, a Redfin Premier agent in Nashville, said young remote workers are still arriving for a lower cost of living, and that companies including Amazon and Apple are bringing workers into offices there ^[17]. "Nashville has become a magnet for young professionals because the job market is growing right alongside the city," Sanchez said ^[18].

Destination lists age. In 2014 the most popular destinations for 19-to-33-year-olds were Sacramento, Austin, Dallas, Columbus and Seattle ^[14]. Only Austin and Dallas carried over onto the current youngest-adult list ^[15]. The departure side held up better, with New York and Los Angeles on the 2014 out-migration list as well ^[16].

I would weight the 89,412 more heavily than the destination ranking, because a metro shedding net Gen Z at that rate has to compete on rent whatever the leavers do next. The counter-case is inside Redfin's own numbers. Minneapolis shed 1,350 more net Gen Z movers than Los Angeles ^[25], and Redfin says moves among young adults are heavily influenced by college, first jobs and the transition from school into the workforce ^[11]. If the short moves dominate the totals, the outflow metros are mostly feeding their neighbors and the Texas destinations are mostly absorbing Texans. Then neither the housing bet nor the office bet follows from six net figures.