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FactSet's blended Q2 2026 growth rate drops to 32.6% without Alphabet and Amazon, whose GAAP beats leaned on unrealized gains. The pulse is strong. It is not as strong as quoted.
The Investor · Invest desk

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The wedge between the two versions of this number is 18.4 percentage points [1], which is about 36% of the reported growth rate [2]. That portion sits in other income: both companies recognized unrealized gains on investments there [5], so the lift reflects the marked value of stakes they still hold rather than money a customer paid.
Both beats landed at almost exactly 3.2 times consensus [3]. That symmetry says more about the estimates than about the businesses. Sell-side models cover ad load and cloud consumption; nobody publishes a quarterly forecast for a revaluation of a private AI holding, so the portfolios arrive as a surprise every time they move.
Removing the two names does not fully clean the data. Communication Services is up 116.9% year over year, which FactSet's John Butters attributes largely to mark-to-market gains on AI infrastructure investments [13]. Energy's 146.3% has a more legible driver in firm fuel prices [12]. One of those is a price anyone can look up. The other is a valuation exercise performed at quarter end.
What survives the scrubbing is a streak. The index is on its seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth, which puts the start in Q4 2024 [10][5], before the AI infrastructure buildout that has dominated this year's coverage. Even with the two companies excluded, this would be the strongest quarter since Q3 2021, and still eight points below that quarter's 40.6% [9][4]. The operating result is good. It is not the best since the 2021 rebound, which is what the headline figure implies [3].
The earnings calls track the accounting. "AI" has been cited on 305 calls this quarter against 162 for "tariff" [15][16], a ratio of roughly 1.9 to one [6]. "Tariff refund" shows up on 35 calls [16], about a fifth as often as "tariff" itself [7], while "inflation" appears on 193 [17]. Executives are discussing the thing that is moving their reported earnings far more than the cash refunds that would move their actual bank balances.
Fortune's CFO Daily framed the index growth rate as a pulse check for the market and the broader economy, and called the pulse racing [18]. Part of what is racing is a revaluation at two companies, recorded in a line item that can subtract next quarter as easily as it added in this one. For a finance team benchmarking its own quarter against the index, the headline comparison includes two investment portfolios it does not own.
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
As of Monday, the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 in Q2 2026 is 51%, according to an analysis by John Butters, VP and senior earnings analyst at FactSet, shared with Fortune's CFO Daily.
"Blended" means the figure combines actual results from companies that have already reported with estimates for those that have not yet reported.
If the 51% rate holds, it would be the S&P 500's highest earnings growth rate since Q2 2021, when it hit 91.6%.
Two companies, Alphabet and Amazon, are responsible for most of the jump in the blended growth rate since June 30.
Alphabet and Amazon both reported actual GAAP earnings per share well above analyst estimates, and both got a major lift from unrealized gains on investments recognized as other income.
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Evidence-backed comparisons of source perspectives and observed adoption signals. Read the methodology
Which Builder, Operator, and Investor concerns the observed source mix emphasized—not a truth score.
Evidence, demonstrated adoption, hype gap, incentives, and confidence are assessed independently, each on its own current evidence. How these are measured.
Specific, internally consistent figures from one named analyst, relayed by one publisher
Every number traces to John Butters of FactSet as shared with Fortune's CFO Daily: the 51% blended rate, the 32.6% ex-Alphabet/Amazon rate, the historical comparisons, sector figures and call-mention counts. The figures are specific, attributed and internally consistent (51% - 32.6% = 18.4pp; the EPS pairs both imply about 3.2x beats), which supports the core finding. But the cluster contains no primary FactSet publication, no company filings substantiating the unrealized gains, and no second publisher, so magnitude rests on a single relayed dataset.
Not an adoption story; only discourse and accounting disclosures available
The subject is a quarterly earnings statistic, not a product or technology with measurable uptake. The nearest signals in the source are earnings-call mention counts and the fact that some reported profit reflects investment marks; neither measures real-world deployment or usage of anything, so no adoption score is warranted.
Headline 51% overstates underlying momentum, though the source itself discloses the gap
The widely quotable framing — best earnings growth since Q2 2021, a 'racing' pulse — is inflated by non-cash items: about 36% of the 51% comes from two companies whose GAAP beats were lifted by unrealized investment gains, and the sector with the second-largest gain is credited largely to mark-to-market gains on AI infrastructure investments. That is genuine overstatement of the number as quoted. The gap is moderate rather than large because the underlying 32.6% is still the best since Q3 2021 and a seventh straight double-digit quarter, and because Fortune published the deflating figures alongside the headline instead of burying them.
Vendor-supplied data in a sponsor-adjacent newsletter; reporting companies benefit from headline beats
The dataset comes from a commercial data vendor's analyst and was 'shared with CFO Daily', an arrangement that serves both the vendor's visibility and the newsletter's need for a lead item; the source discloses this relationship openly. Separately, the companies whose results drive the number benefit reputationally from large GAAP beats even when the lift is non-cash. These are ordinary, disclosed incentives rather than hidden conflicts, and the publisher's own framing works against the flattering read, so the pressure is moderate.
Direction well grounded, magnitude single-sourced
Confidence is limited by one publisher and one relayed analyst dataset with no primary document, filings, or corroboration in the cluster, and the blended rate is by construction provisional since it mixes actuals with estimates that will change. It is lifted by the specificity and mutual consistency of the figures and by the fact that the central conclusion — headline growth is concentrated in two companies' investment marks — follows from arithmetic on numbers the source published itself.
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1 article · August 25, 2026