Invest1 publisher3 min readPublished
New shares supplied a fifth of Strategy's $31.6 billion market-cap gain
Strategy told followers its market value rose $32 billion in three months. The share price rose 54%. About $6.3 billion of the gain came from selling 61.5 million new shares at an average of $102.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- The Class A price rose about 54% across that window, from $109.46 to $168.50, while the share count went from about 359 million to about 421 million.
- In the week to September 20 Strategy sold no shares under the ATM programme and bought 950 bitcoin for $75.7 million plus 1,771,238 STRC shares for $174 million.
- Strategy now holds 846,000 bitcoin bought for $63.80 billion, an average of $75,416 a coin, alongside $5.04 billion in its USD Reserve and $1.05 billion in USD Cash.
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Why it matters
- cost The $6.3 billion came in at an average of $102.44, so the run to $168.50 handed about $4.1 billion of the headline gain to the summer buyers and not to the holders who were there in June.
- constraint Another $31.6 billion of market value without a price move would take roughly 187 million new shares, 44% on top of the 421 million now outstanding. The summer's issuance was 62 million.
- decision Funding coin purchases and preferred buybacks from the $6.09 billion of dollars on hand, as Strategy did in the week to September 20, is a call it now has to make week by week against issuing equity.
- contradiction The company's own figures pull two ways: 846,000 coins at Monday's $86,620 close are worth about $73.3 billion against $70.9 billion of Class A market value, so the common was marked below the gross coin value that day.
The $31.6 billion breaks into two pieces. Strategy had about 359 million Class A shares in June, and the price moved $59.04 over the three months, which is $21.2 billion of market value for holders who already owned the stock [4][1][2]. The 61.5 million shares sold over the summer were worth $10.4 billion at Monday's $168.50 close [5][3]. The two come to $31.6 billion, the number on the company's own chart [2][4]. Two thirds of the headline is price on the June base [5].
Cryptopolitan's tally of the weekly filings puts the summer issuance at about 61.5 million Class A shares for about $6.3 billion between June 22 and August 30 [5]. That is $102.44 a share, below the June 22 price of $109.46 and 39% under Monday's close [3][6][7]. The heaviest week, August 17 to 23, went out at $109.52: 18,261,118 shares for $2.0 billion of net proceeds [6][9]. The week to June 28 averaged $90.77 [7][10]. Marking those shares from $102.44 up to $168.50 is $4.1 billion, and it accrued to the people who bought in the at-the-market program [8].
Whether the dilution helped the holders who sat still depends on the share price against bitcoin per share on each sale date. Cryptopolitan's summary of the weekly filings does not break out holdings on each of those dates, though the end points are there. Strategy holds 846,000 BTC bought for $63.80 billion, an average of $75,416 a coin [15]. Spread over 421 million Class A shares, that is 0.00201 BTC a share, worth about $174 at Monday's $86,620 bitcoin close, against a $168.50 stock [4][10][11]. That comparison is gross of STRC, the variable-rate perpetual preferred [21].
An hour before the chart went up, chief executive Phong Le wrote on X, "$STRC is a passenger jet. $BTC is a fighter jet. $MSTR is a rocket ship. Buckle up" [8]. The ranking holds on the three-month numbers: STRC up about 11% to $98.78, bitcoin up about 35% at the close, MSTR up 54% [3][9][10]. STRC is still under its $100 par [17]. Strategy bought back 1,771,238 STRC shares for $174 million in the week to September 20, about $98.24 each [14][18].
That week the company raised nothing under the ATM and bought 950 BTC for $75.7 million, according to Cryptopolitan, so $249.7 million went out against $5.04 billion in the USD Reserve and $1.05 billion in cash [13][16][16]. In late July the flow went the other way: 1,638 BTC sold at an average of $63,957, about $104.8 million of proceeds for coins that would fetch $141.9 million at Monday's price, a difference of $37.1 million [12][14].
The 54% describes what a June holder earned per share [3]. The 80% describes how much bigger the equity got, and I would use the first when judging the stock [1]. The counter-case is genuine: if bitcoin per share climbed through the summer, then the $102.44 buyers funded accretion and 54% understates the compounding [6]. Repeating a $31.6 billion gain with no price move takes about 187 million more shares at $168.50, 44% on top of the 421 million outstanding [15].
What to watch
- Whether the next weekly filings show ATM issuance restarting near $168.50 or the dollar reserve funding purchases again.
- Whether STRC trades back above its $100 par, and whether buybacks continue at around $98 a share.
- Whether the Class A market value climbs back above the spot value of the 846,000 coins.