Korea puts $23.2 billion into a Texas gas plant still at the development stage

Divide the $45 billion by 20 years and the return is $2.25 billion a year against $23.2 billion paid up front, an internal rate near 7.4 percent with payback around year ten ^[16][23]. Assume instead that the whole $45 billion arrives once, at the end of year 20, and the same two numbers compound at 3.4 percent ^[17]. Take Koo Ja-keun's low end of $43 billion and they become roughly 6.8 percent and 3.1 percent ^[18]. The government gave the committees one sentence and no payment profile, so both readings fit it ^[24].

Gross gain over the two decades is $21.8 billion ^[21]. The range the government offered is $2 billion wide, about 4.5 percent of its own midpoint ^[22]. Koo said the project is early. "Since it is still at the development stage, there are concerns about whether other variables could emerge in the process, so we said caution is needed," he told reporters ^[4]. In my view a band that tight comes out of a model with contracted revenue in it, and the contracts are the part lawmakers say they have not been shown ^[6].

Bae Joon-hyung of the People Power Party is the opposition liaison on the finance and economy committee. He said: "Someone has to buy the electricity, so we pressed on who will buy it, who will build the data centers and whether they have sufficient capacity, and whether they have experience building data centers before." ^[7][15] He added, "We raised the issue that these points are not clear." ^[8]

The government also reaffirmed that no additional investment will be made beyond $20 billion a year and $200 billion in total ^[13]. Encinal therefore takes 11.6 percent of the lifetime ceiling and 116 percent of a single year's ^[20][19]. Behind it sit eight large reactors in the United States as the second project and Alaska LNG development as the third. Both are to be pursued reflecting the interests of both countries, with feasibility reviewed after further consultation with the US side ^[10].

The trade ministry reported it is discussing a stake in Westinghouse of between 5 and 10 percent, tied to how Korean companies take part in reactor construction in the United States, according to sources cited by Seoul Economic Daily ^[11][12]. That structure puts equity and workshare in the same negotiation.

The $23.2 billion is what Korea pays; the $45 billion is a projection, and it depends on an offtake contract ^[6]. The counter-thesis is serious. The government reported that it judged the project has commercial merit ^[3], and it may be holding an operator's contracted model it will not publish while terms with Washington are unsettled, in which case what is late is the disclosure. A named buyer and a payment schedule would settle which number is real. The memorandum with Washington has no date, and Kim Sung-won said, "No date has come out yet." ^[14] Meanwhile $23.2 billion of gas in Texas is $23.2 billion not spent on the reactors or on Alaska under a ceiling the government says it will not breach ^[13].