Invest1 publisher3 min readPublished
GRAM's Believers Fund still holds 44% of the token's circulating supply
A $52.68 million cliff unlock dated September 22 equals about 83% of a day's trading in GRAM, and the locker behind it has already paid out 12 of its 36 monthly distributions, leaving 24 more to come.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- DeFiLlama scheduled a TON Believers Fund cliff unlock for 7:19 PM UTC on September 22, releasing 36.58 million GRAM worth about $52.68 million, roughly 1.3% of circulating supply.
- That release equals approximately 83% of GRAM's 24-hour trading volume, which DeFiLlama reports at $63.27 million against a $4.045 billion market cap and a $1.44 price.
- Pavel Durov said in July that Telegram would embed a fee-free, non-custodial Gram wallet, the demand side on which the supply argument rests.
Compiled by The InvestorSomething wrong?How this is made
Why it matters
- contradiction DeFiLlama's September 22 cliff and Tonviewer's October 7 batch are not reconciled by either tracker, so a holder positioning for the event is choosing one tracker's calendar over the other's.
- constraint Twenty-four releases still to come means the supply question returns every month for about two more years, and a quiet print in September tells a holder little about October.
- exposure Keyrock places the negative pressure roughly 30 days ahead of an unlock; on a monthly schedule, that 30-day window is continuous until the fund finishes distributing.
- decision The choice facing a holder is between a schedule with published dates and sizes and a wallet whose demand exists so far as a July product statement.
Set the $52.68 million against a month of turnover instead of a day and it comes to 2.8%, on DeFiLlama's $63.27 million of daily volume [4]. Set it against The Tie's population of more than 12,000 unlocks and it is roughly 415 times the median event, which that survey puts at 0.20% of a token's average daily volume [3][8]. The Tie's conclusion was that liquidity, not the dollar figure, decides whether an unlock moves a market [9].
Tonviewer's locker page is more informative than the headline number. It shows 12 of the 36 distribution periods completed [13], so 24 remain [5], and a run of monthly allocations lasting three years therefore started about a year ago [10]. It is not beginning now. The balance still inside, close to 1.25 billion GRAM [12], divides into about 52 million GRAM a period across those 24, above the roughly 37 million Tonviewer lists for October 7 [9].
The locker is also large against the float. If 36.58 million GRAM is 1.3% of circulating supply [2], circulating supply is about 2.81 billion [6], and the 1.25 billion still locked equals roughly 44% of it [7]. At $1.82 billion, that holding is worth about 45% of GRAM's $4.045 billion market capitalisation [8].
On price, the two bodies of research that reach opposite conclusions agree on where to look. Tokenomist, across more than 236 events, found most of the downward movement happened before the unlock date, at -14.7% against Bitcoin, and that established tokens with higher liquidity showed little effect [14][15]. Keyrock, across more than 16,000 events, found 90% produced negative price pressure, often beginning about 30 days out [16]. A 2026 study of 52 unlocked cryptocurrencies listed on Binance found 46 of them negative, averaging -16.97% within 72 hours, and describes the results as correlational [17].
The demand side rests on a product statement. Pavel Durov said in July that Telegram would embed a fee-free, non-custodial Gram wallet [18]; Messari's overview has the asset used for network fees, staking, and payments linked to Telegram [11]; the token itself was renamed from Toncoin on June 15, 2026, with the blockchain keeping the name TON [10]. Whether a billion-user wallet can absorb the new supply is one of the two things research is split on [19].
In my view the September 22 timestamp is the least informative part of this, since both Tokenomist and Keyrock put the move ahead of the date, and the 24 remaining releases are the part a holder can actually price. Volume is what would prove that reading wrong in either direction. If GRAM's turnover trebles to roughly $190 million a day, each $52.68 million release falls to about 28% of a day's trading [11], inside the zone where Tokenomist found liquid tokens barely register the event [15]. If turnover stays near $63 million, the ratio stays near 83% every month until the fund empties [3].
What to watch
- Whether the October 7 batch arrives at the roughly 37 million GRAM Tonviewer lists or nearer the 52 million the locker balance implies across 24 periods.
- Whether GRAM's daily volume moves off $63.27 million, the denominator The Tie's research says decides an unlock's impact.
- Launch detail or user numbers for the fee-free, non-custodial Gram wallet Durov described in July.