Australia's record El Niño call splits the harvest forecast by crop and by state

Reliable records start in 1950, so the comparison set behind the Bureau's ranking is about 76 years deep ^[19]. The claim is also forward-looking: the wording has the event likely to become the strongest, a forecast about where it is headed ^[2]. ABARES, the research division of the Department of Agriculture, puts the same caution on the ground effects, saying the event could lower spring rainfall in parts of Australia and that the impacts are uncertain ^[3].

That caution shows up inside its own numbers. The forecast fall in winter crop output across the three affected states runs from 16% to 44%, a spread of 28 percentage points, and in two other states the forecast points up ^[22][10][11]. The crops counted are wheat, barley and canola ^[10].

Two of the cost pressures here sit outside the Pacific. The phys.org analysis attributes the fuel and fertiliser increases to conflict in the Middle East and to inflationary pressure already in the economy ^[4]. Diesel is the one that spreads: higher fuel prices raise transport, freight and logistics costs past the farm gate and along the supply chain ^[13].

The most recent price data predates any of this year's spring. The Australian Bureau of Statistics figure covers the twelve months to July, a window that closes before this spring's rainfall could reach a harvest or a shelf ^[16]. The analysis expects higher food prices to keep inflation above the Reserve Bank's 2-3% target for some time ^[17].

Heat has a second effect on produce, and it is cosmetic. Extreme heat and sun exposure can make fruit and vegetables look worse without changing their quality, and the industry has used that point to sell "imperfect" produce ^[7]. The piece says such predictions are not easy given the supply- and demand-side factors at play, so it puts no figure on any specific item, and its expectation that wheat, sugar and beef stay above longer-term averages through the rest of 2026 rests on business forecasters it never names ^[18][12].

The event also lands on a baseline that has been drifting down. CSIRO has pointed to declining rainfall in southern Australia since 1970 during the April-to-October growing season, attributing it to both natural variability and climate change ^[15]. Severe droughts coincided with El Niño in 1994, 2002, 2006 and 2015, with lower pasture availability, reduced crop yields and reduced profits across the farm sector ^[14].