Barrick nearly tripled free cash flow while mining 17% less gold

The $0.42 a share declared for the fourth quarter is 2.4 times the third quarter's payment, which puts that payment at $0.175 ^[6][3]. That is exactly the level the base dividend has now been raised 40% to, from $0.125 ^[5][6]. So the new base sits where last quarter's entire cheque sat, and $0.245 of the fourth-quarter declaration, 58% of it, is the performance top-up ^[4]. Annualized, the base alone is $0.70 a share ^[5].

Half of attributable free cash flow is the target ^[5]. Barrick reported $3.87 billion of free cash flow for 2025, and half of that is $1.94 billion ^[11][7]. Buybacks alone came to $1.50 billion last year, about 3.0% of shares outstanding and 39% of reported free cash flow ^[7][8]. Operating cash flow of $7.69 billion became that $3.87 billion after $3.82 billion of investment and other uses ^[11][11]. Barrick did not disclose the attributable figure the new policy is measured against, or the size of the stake the North American IPO would sell ^[16].

Where the money came from shows up in the cost lines. Full-year all-in sustaining costs were $1,637 an ounce, slightly above guidance, which Barrick attributed to higher royalties driven by the higher realized price ^[14]. Fourth-quarter cost of sales was $1,904 an ounce, 22% above the third quarter ^[15]. Barrick mined about 3.93 million ounces in 2024 for roughly $1.32 billion of free cash flow; in 2025 it mined 3.26 million and made $3.87 billion ^[15][12].

"On the back of this financial strength, the Board approved a further 40% increase to our quarterly base dividend and a dividend framework to allow shareholders to further participate in our performance," said Mark Hill, Barrick's president and chief executive ^[16].

The 2026 guidance range tops out at 3.25 million ounces, marginally below last year's 3.26 million, and its midpoint of 3.08 million is about 6% lower ^[9][9][10]. Growth in the payout base next year has to come from price. In my view the 50% policy is a claim on the gold price, and the IPO is the one piece here that can move value on separate terms, next to a Fourmile resource in Nevada that Barrick doubled and expects to increase again in 2026 ^[8]. The case against that reading is simple. Every dollar of North American cash flow sold to outside shareholders stops being attributable to Barrick, and it shrinks the base the 50% applies to. Whether the sale pays depends on the multiple those assets fetch separately against the one they earn inside a 3.26-million-ounce producer ^[13].

The buybacks also put a price on the equity: $1.50 billion for about 3.0% of the shares implies an average valuation near $50 billion over the year, against which $3.87 billion of free cash flow is 7.7% ^[7][13][14]. The test comes in 2026. Free cash flow near $3.87 billion on the guidance midpoint of 3.08 million ounces, with all-in sustaining costs back inside guidance, would credit the 2025 record to the mines rather than the price ^[9][14].