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Long semiconductors holds the top of BofA's crowded-trade list on 53% of managers
Bank of America's September Global Fund Manager Survey keeps semis at number one for a fourth month, on 53% of respondents against 82% in July, and the newest positioning figure in the write-up is also from July.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- Bank of America's September Global Fund Manager Survey has 53% of respondents naming long semiconductors the most crowded trade, unchanged from August and the fourth straight month at number one.
- The same reading was roughly 25% of managers in April 2026, 73% in May and 80% in June, before peaking in July.
- The June survey drew 198 managers overseeing $540 billion; July's edition was slightly larger at 210 managers representing $555 billion.
- The iShares Semiconductor ETF was up 99% year to date as of mid-June 2026, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index notched multiple all-time highs in the same period.
- An AI bubble was named a top tail risk by 28% of managers in June and 45% in July, and by September rising bond yields had overtaken it as the leading worry.
Compiled by The InvestorSomething wrong?How this is made
Why it matters
- decision Anyone sizing a position against consensus now works from a 53% majority instead of near-unanimity, and has to decide whether a shrinking majority is a weaker sell signal or a later one.
- contradiction The write-up says the drop does not mean managers turned bearish, while the only positioning figure it gives shows tech net overweights already down to 18% in July; the two point different ways on whether money moved.
- exposure If yields are the risk managers rank first, the discount-rate move they fear reprices the same chip stocks they rank as the most crowded, so both survey answers land on one book.
The crowding question takes one answer per respondent, so its shares are zero-sum. In July, 82% named long semiconductors, which left 18 points for every other trade in the market; in September the split is 53 and 47 [3][1][2]. Assuming a panel near July's size, about 60 managers changed their answer in two months [3]. September's 53% is still roughly twice April's reading [6].
Crypto Briefing's write-up of the survey says the fall does not mean half the industry turned bearish on semiconductors, only that fewer managers see it as the single most consensus position [11]. The write-up is right, but the series cannot show more than that. The July tech net overweight is the only positioning figure on record [10]; there is no September equivalent.
The write-up also notes that higher yields raise the discount rate applied to future earnings and hit long-duration growth stocks such as semiconductor companies disproportionately hard [12]. The risk managers moved to the front of their list in September prices the position they still rank as the most crowded.
The crowding score may be a perception index, with exposure unmoved, and 53% after a 29-point fall, more than a third of July's reading, a weaker contrarian signal than 82% on the way up [1][4]. Or managers started trimming in July, and the crowding score is following the money down late.
I lean to the first, partly because the label the write-up uses for this group, "frozen bulls" (managers who believe valuations are stretched but remain unwilling to reduce their exposure), describes precisely that combination of a changed view and an unchanged book [7]. A tech net overweight below the July print in the next survey would settle it the other way.
What to watch
- Whether long semiconductors holds the top slot for a fifth month or another trade takes it.
- Whether rising bond yields stay ahead of the AI bubble in the tail-risk ranking in October.
- Any September panel count: 198 managers and $540bn in June and 210 and $555bn in July are the only sizes on record, and a smaller panel changes the 60-manager estimate.