Oppenheimer's Muse case asks 115 million people to pay $20 a month

Goldman Sachs and Oppenheimer price a Muse subscriber identically and disagree only on how many will exist. Goldman's 10 million subscribers producing about $2.4 billion a year is $240 a head ^[8][13], which is the $20 Power plan billed twelve times ^[7]. Put 115 million people through the same $240 and the total is $27.6 billion ^[14], near enough to Helfstein's $27.5 billion ^[2]. The two houses are 11.5 times apart on the count ^[15].

Wedbush's estimate is the more legible one. About $5 billion of Muse subscription revenue by 2027 ^[9], at $240 a year, implies roughly 20.8 million subscribers ^[17], or 18% of Oppenheimer's threshold ^[18]. Since Wedbush also calls that $5 billion about 1.5% of the revenue it expects Meta to book in 2027 ^[10], its model carries something like $333 billion of total revenue for the year ^[19], and the $650 target that goes with it ^[9] is a call on advertising.

The consent figure is harder to use than it looks. Muse debuted on September 8, 2026 and needs access to accounts, passwords and personal data to book travel or work an inbox on someone's behalf ^[3][4], and 13% of surveyed US consumers said they would be willing to share all their passwords with Meta ^[5]. CryptoBriefing's account of that survey does not state its size or provider ^[23]. Thirteen per cent of an unstated base cannot be turned into a subscriber cap, which is the weakness in treating it as the binding limit. ChatGPT and Gemini already hold substantial footholds in the assistant market ^[6], and Oppenheimer's 115 million would be more people than live in Japan, by the report's own comparison ^[24].

Set against the current mix, the size of the ask is clear. Advertising was around 98% of approximately $60.8 billion of revenue in Q2 2026 ^[11], leaving about $1.2 billion of non-advertising revenue in the quarter and roughly $4.9 billion annualized ^[20]. Oppenheimer's $27.5 billion is about 5.6 times that ^[21]. At the 80% operating margin in the note, it would be $22 billion of operating income ^[16].

I'd expect Muse to stay a feature of an advertising business with a subscription bolted on, because the published prices sell token allowances and priority access ^[7]. The counter-thesis sits in the top tier: $100 a month for 3 billion tokens ^[7], and if the paid mix skews there, revenue per subscriber runs well above the $240 every estimate here assumes ^[13] and the required headcount falls. Two disclosures would change the view: Meta reporting Muse subscribers as a line item, or a paid mix weighted to the $100 plan.