Values for surviving U.S. malls climbed 13% over the past year, the strongest gain of any major commercial real estate sector

Two numbers from the same firm sit awkwardly together. Green Street has survivor-mall values up 13% over the past year, the strongest gain of any major commercial real estate sector ^[2]. Green Street's own retail analyst, Vince Tibone, estimates that only about 250 of the roughly 900 malls the firm tracks are benefiting meaningfully ^[5]. That leaves about 650 properties, 72% of the tracked set, outside the move ^[6].

The closures change what the 13% is measuring. An estimated 200 malls have shut since 2008 ^[1], roughly 11 a year over the 18 years to this month ^[7]. Fortune describes the 13% as the gain on values for the survivors ^[17]. An average that keeps losing its weakest members rises partly by subtraction. Fortune's account does not break the 13% into income growth and yield movement.

Footfall did not produce it. Placer.ai counted indoor-mall visits from January through August up 2.5% on last year, still 1.3% below the same stretch of 2019 ^[3]. A year ago that period ran about 3.7% below 2019 ^[8]. Two and a half points of visits do not revalue an asset class by 13% in twelve months. That leaves rent growth on new leases and buyers accepting a lower yield on the same income.

The leasing evidence is firmer. Tibone said demand for mall space is as strong as it has been in more than a decade ^[9]. Brands that first tested malls with pop-ups are now signing leases of five years or longer ^[10], which he called "a growing and important source of new tenant demand" ^[11]. What fills the space has changed too: Paco Underhill pointed to gyms, daycare centers, doctors' offices, restaurants and beauty services as repeat-visit drivers ^[13], the categories the anchor tenants used to bar. "They were very clear: I don't want drugstores. I don't want a hardware store. I don't want a grocery store. I don't want shopping carts in the shopping mall," Underhill said ^[12].

Placer.ai, not a mall owner, is the source of one dwell-time figure: 37.6% of 2025 indoor-mall visits ran past 75 minutes, a higher share than at open-air centers or outlets ^[4].

In my view the 13% prices a narrowing group of assets and the sector average is flattered by what left it. If demand at the top is the strongest in a decade ^[9] and A-space tightens, tenants get pushed into the next tier and Tibone's 250 becomes 350. Owners of the other 650 are not waiting on that; they are turning former department stores and surplus land into entertainment venues, housing, hotels and offices ^[14]. I would abandon the composition reading if Green Street's gains showed up in the B and C tiers, or if the closure count fell well below 11 a year ^[7].