James Galbraith says long yields are the current short rate plus the expected path of short rates and very little else, so the bond rout is a hike forecast, and because one-and-done is rare the smallest sequence worth pricing is 50 basis points.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives58
- Confidence38
Sebastien Canderle says buyout managers still cannot sell, so capital pension funds had budgeted to arrive after four or five years sits at carrying value while CalPERS's estimated 7% a year keeps compounding against it.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption52
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives68
- Confidence45
New York's Office of Worker Power gets a director who ran the United Auto Workers' organizing department and an order pushing three city agencies toward proactive labor investigations, while its budget and headcount stay unstated.
Reality
- Evidence61
- Adoption31
- Hype gap+27
- Incentives66
- Confidence54
Roughly $87 billion of yen buying, funded by a repo against Japan's own bond holdings, is being asked to steady a carry trade that estimates put between $500 billion and $4 trillion, and Yves Smith expects it to hold briefly.
Reality
- Evidence26
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives45
- Confidence32
European gas storage sits at 63% against a flexible 75% November target. The front month has traded above deferred contracts all summer, and the shortfall carried out of March lands in 2027 budgets.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives55
- Confidence50
Two former utility research heads argue water scarcity is now an energy-security problem. For anyone siting a plant or a data center, that moves water out of the ESG appendix and into diligence.
Reality
- Evidence22
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives58
- Confidence27
SNAP cuts have pushed 4.5 million people off benefits and food banks say they cannot make up the gap. If you sell discretionary goods to that cohort, reprice your assumptions.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives71
- Confidence44