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Tim Arrowsmith — person — Clarity Today

person

Tim Arrowsmith

Northern California goat herder described in the commentary as having hedged a California wage-rule change with a Kalshi event contract.

Current clusters

invest1 distinct publisher

The goat herder's hedge: $50,000 on Kalshi against a California wage deadline

Tim Arrowsmith bought $500,000 of protection on a state rule fix that no insurer would quote. What the price implies, and what the trigger date does not cover, matter more than the anecdote.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence24
Adoption16
Hype gap+42
Incentives82

Confidence41