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Summary of Economic Projections

The Federal Reserve's quarterly publication of individual policymakers' forecasts for growth, unemployment, inflation and the policy rate, whose rate chart is widely known as the dot plot.

Known aliases

FOMC Projections materials

Relationships

No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.

Current clusters

invest1 publisher

A single participant's dot now sets the Fed's 2029 funds-rate median

Seventeen of the eighteen participants at the September 15-16 meeting filed projections for 2029, and with an odd count the median stops being an average of two dots and becomes the ninth person's number.

Publishers:federalreserve.gov

Reality

Evidence74
Adoption: Insufficient
Hype gap+12
Incentives40
Confidence76

invest16 publishers

The FOMC decides next week before its preferred inflation gauge for August arrives

Headline inflation held at 3.4% in August while core eased to 2.4%, and the priced odds of a quarter-point hike on Wednesday ran anywhere from about 70% to better than 90% depending on which publisher was reading the tape.

Publishers:americanbanker.comcnbc.comcointelegraph.comcpapracticeadvisor.comcrowdfundinsider.comcryptobriefing.comcryptopolitan.comdecrypt.coen.sedaily.comfederalreserve.govfinance.yahoo.comfortune.comscmp.comseekingalpha.comsemafor.comthedailyupside.com

Perspective Coverage

16 publishers

Builder: Builder 6%
Operator: Operator 35%
Investor: Investor 59%

Reality

Evidence74
Adoption88
Hype gap+12
Incentives62
Confidence76